Analysis, not fortune.
Brazil
16 stories
Vasco da Gama sit 15th but have won seven of their last 10 and conceded just four goals in that run. São Paulo, 10th, have lost five of theirs and are short of defenders.
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Red Bull Bragantino led 3-1 at the break and survived 25 Cruzeiro shots, 13 of them on target. Their goalkeeper earned a match rating of 10.
4–2
Jonathan Calleri scored in the 20th and 70th minutes for a 2-1 win, and São Paulo's 21 shots to 10 matched the scoreline. Vitória's only reply came from a chance worth 0.07 expected goals.
2–1
Second-placed Palmeiras host fifth-placed Bahia at Nubank Parque on 9 October, with 11 points between them. The expected-goals column tells a different story from the table.
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Jefferson Savarino scored three times in 79 minutes and earned a match rating of 10 as Fluminense tightened their hold on third place. Coritiba failed to register a single shot on target.
4–0
Bahia's goalkeeper faced 11 shots on target and stopped all but one, earning a match rating of 8.7. Palmeiras took 26 shots in total and finished with an expected-goals edge of 1.91 to 0.51.
1–0
Santos trailed the league leaders 2-0 at half-time, then scored twice from the spot in six minutes after Jorginho's red card to earn a 2-2 draw.
2–2
São Paulo's goalkeeper kept the score down against nine Cruzeiro shots on target, but goals from Jorge and Zé Lucas decided it. Expected goals read 3.13 to 1.06 in the hosts' favour.
2–0
Cruzeiro lead São Paulo by nine points in the Brasileirão, yet both sides have taken 1.4 points a game over their last ten. São Paulo have won three of the last five meetings.
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Sixteenth-placed Vasco da Gama arrive in better recent form than 12th-placed Botafogo, who have taken 0.9 points a match over their last ten. Botafogo have not lost to them in five meetings.
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Two midfielders shared all four goals and both earned a match rating of 10. Matheuzinho also supplied two assists in a result that leaves Chapecoense 20th on 18 points.
4–0
Remo put nine shots on target and had 62% of the ball, yet needed an 88th-minute goal from Braga to cancel out Kannemann's stoppage-time opener for Grêmio.
1–1
Mirassol played from the 28th minute without Victor, were outshot 33 to 8, and still equalised through Luis to leave with a 1-1 draw. The goalkeeper's match rating of 8.4 was the highest on the pitch.
1–1
Internacional had 28% of the ball and faced 22 shots, yet Anthoni's match rating of 9 and Alan Patrick's late goal settled a basement-end meeting at the Beira-Rio.
2–1
Nineteenth meets 17th at the Mangueirão. Remo have lost their last five league matches, yet the betting market still makes the hosts narrow favourites.
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Four points separate the sides before Matchday 29 at the Beira-Rio. Internacional have won one of their last 10; Corinthians have won one of theirs too.
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