The state of play
Palmeiras sit second in the Brasileirão Serie A on 57 points from 28 games, with 16 wins, nine draws and three defeats. Their goal difference of +26 is built on the meanest defence in this fixture: 21 goals conceded.
Bahia are fifth on 46 points, 11 behind, after 12 wins, 10 draws and six defeats. Their goal difference is +8, from 43 scored and 35 conceded.
The league sequences point in different directions. Bahia's reads LWWWW, a loss followed by four wins. Palmeiras's reads DWDDW, two wins and three draws. The fixture, Matchday 29, kicks off at 00:30 UTC on 9 October in Sao Paulo.
Head to head
Palmeiras have the better of 26 meetings: 13 wins to Bahia's four, with nine draws. Games between them average 2.19 goals.
The recent record is closer. Of the last five, Palmeiras won three and Bahia two. Bahia won 1-0 at home on 28 September 2025 and 1-0 at Palmeiras on 27 April 2025. Palmeiras won the most recent meeting 2-1 away on 5 April 2026.
The numbers behind it
Palmeiras have scored 47 league goals from 33.5 expected goals and conceded 21 against 27.4 expected. They have beaten the underlying numbers at both ends, which is worth remembering before reading too much into the table.
Bahia's totals match their chances closely: 43 goals from 44.1 expected, and 35 conceded against 35.2. Their expected-goals figure for the season is higher than Palmeiras's.
Over the last ten matches Palmeiras have won five, drawn four and lost one, scoring 14 and conceding five, for 1.9 points per match. Bahia have won four, drawn five and lost one, scoring 16 and conceding 12, for 1.7 points per match.
Our view
The betting market implies about 61% for a Palmeiras win, 22% for a draw and 17% for a Bahia win. Our model sits in the same place: 61%, 22% and 17%. There is no meaningful gap to explain.
On goals, the market implies about 57% for over 2.5 and our model leans lower at 53%. That is a modest difference, and it fits with the 2.19 average goals in their meetings. These are estimates, not predictions. A 17% chance still happens often enough, and football is high-variance.
Correction, 7 October 2026: the headline originally described Bahia's run as five matches long. Their last five results are a defeat followed by four wins, and the headline now says so.
Market and model
Betting market · consensus of 13 bookmakersGiovePicks model
- Home win61% market61% model1.65 Fair odds implied by the market
- Draw22% market22% model4.52 Fair odds implied by the market
- Away win17% market17% model5.82 Fair odds implied by the market
- Over 2.5 goals57% market53% model1.77 Fair odds implied by the market
- Under 2.5 goals43% market47% model2.30 Fair odds implied by the market
Estimates built from public data, not advice or a tip. We do not take bets or recommend any operator. Football is high-variance and no estimate is a guarantee. 18+ only.