São Paulo host Vasco, whose last ten matches brought only four goals against

The state of play

São Paulo are 10th on 39 points, four clear of Vasco da Gama in 15th on 35. The gap in the table is smaller than the gap in recent form. Vasco have taken 2.3 points per match over their last 10, with seven wins, two draws and one defeat. São Paulo have averaged 1.3 from four wins, one draw and five defeats.

The latest league sequences point the same way, if less sharply. São Paulo's last five read win, defeat, defeat, win, defeat. Vasco's read draw, win, win, win, defeat.

São Paulo are without three regular starters. Domingos Duarte has a cruciate ligament injury, Enzo Díaz is out on a coach's decision, and Luciano is listed with a groin problem after scoring four times in his last eight appearances. Several outlets, including ge and UOL, report that Luciano and Calleri are back in contention, so his status is worth watching. Djhordney is suspended for accumulated yellow cards.

Vasco miss two regulars: defender Carlos Cuesta, who has started eight of his last eight, and Facundo Colidio, who has two goals in that spell. Brenner is also out with a toe injury.

Head to head

The clubs have met 42 times, and 10 of those ended level. Meetings average 2.83 goals. Vasco won three of the last five, including 2-1 in April, while São Paulo won the other two, 2-0 in November 2025 and 3-0 in October 2024.

The numbers behind it

São Paulo have scored 35 and conceded 35, a goal difference of zero. Their expected goals are 39.7 for and 35.8 against, so their results sit close to what their chances suggest. Over the last 10 they have scored nine and let in 11.

Vasco's season totals are 36 scored and 42 conceded, a goal difference of -6. Their expected figures are far better: 45.2 for and 29.5 against across 29 matches. Their recent record, 17 scored and four conceded in 10, looks like the results catching up with the chances.

Our view

The betting market implies about 45% for a São Paulo win, 28% for a draw and 28% for a Vasco win. Our model leans slightly towards the visitors, with 41% for the home side, 28% for a draw and 31% for Vasco.

The difference is small. It rests on Vasco's recent results and expected goals, set against São Paulo's weaker run. These are estimates, not predictions, and football is high-variance.