Remo, without a win in 10, host Grêmio with the gap to 17th at six points

The state of play

Remo go into Matchday 29 of the Brasileirão Serie A on a run that reads L-L-L-L-L, and they have not won in 10 league matches. They sit 19th with 23 points from 28 games, six behind Grêmio in 17th. Kick-off at the Mangueirão in Belém is at 22:30 UTC on 7 October, with Davi de Oliveira Lacerda refereeing.

The hosts have won five, drawn eight and lost 15 this season. Across their last 10 they have three draws and seven defeats, taking 0.3 points per match. Grêmio's record is 7 wins, 8 draws and 13 defeats, and their last 10 have brought three wins, two draws and five losses at 1.1 points per match, almost four times Remo's return over the same stretch.

Head to head

The sides have met once in the period covered. On 5 April Grêmio hosted Remo and the match finished 0-0, so neither team has yet scored against the other.

The numbers behind it

Remo have scored 32 and conceded 47 for a goal difference of -15. Grêmio have scored 30 and conceded 38, a goal difference of -8. In their last 10 matches Remo scored 9 and conceded 16; Grêmio scored 11 and conceded 13.

Expected goals tell a more nuanced story. Remo have generated 28.3 xG and allowed 40.4, so they have scored slightly more than their chances suggest and conceded more. Grêmio's underlying defensive figure is the weaker of the two: 47.1 xG against, 9.1 more than the 38 goals they have actually let in. Their attack has produced 26.2 xG, the lowest of the two sides. On chance quality alone, the six-point gap looks narrower than the table implies.

Our view

The betting market implies about 42% for a Remo win, 28% for a draw and 30% for Grêmio. Our model is almost identical: 42% for the hosts, 27% for the draw and 30% for the visitors. The two sets of estimates differ by no more than a percentage point, so there is no meaningful disagreement to report.

On goals, the market puts over 2.5 at about 50% and our model at 49%, effectively a coin toss. That is consistent with two attacks producing modest expected-goals totals and a previous meeting that ended goalless. Football is high-variance, and estimates this evenly spread leave every outcome very much open.