Analysis, not fortune.
USA
14 stories
Seventh-placed Lexington have taken 44 points to Las Vegas Lights' 36, and the model leans their way. The Lights have won two of the four meetings between the clubs, though.
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The hosts have taken one win from their last 10 and conceded 25 goals in that spell. Phoenix Rising, a place below them, are the slight favourites with both the betting market and our model.
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El Paso Locomotive have won eight of their last ten, while Sacramento Republic have not lost in ten. The market and our model disagree slightly on who is ahead.
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San Antonio FC have scored three goals in their last 10 matches. New Mexico United arrive fourth in the USL Championship, 10 points clear of them, though the home side won both league meetings this year.
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Tulsa have drawn four of their last five and sit eighth; 19th-placed Oakland Roots have not won away from the pack in recent weeks of draws either. The last two meetings both finished 1-1.
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SC Jacksonville had the better goalkeeper rating on the pitch bar one, yet lost 1-0 to Birmingham Legion FC after conceding in the 37th minute. Birmingham put seven of 14 shots on target.
0–1
The away side has won five of the 10 meetings between Oakland Roots and San Antonio, but San Antonio arrive with one win in their last 10 and 16 goals conceded in that run.
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Phoenix have lost three of their last five, yet their expected goals total is the better of the two sides. Five of the last five meetings between these clubs produced fewer than four goals.
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Ihsan Sacko scored twice, one a stoppage-time penalty, as Phoenix Rising built a 3-0 interval lead. Las Vegas Lights had 66% of the ball and scored twice late, but could not find a third.
3–2
Sacramento Republic have not lost in their last 10 but drew six of them. Colorado Springs Switchbacks arrive four points behind, with 37 goals conceded against Sacramento's 25.
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Fifth in the USL Championship meet 23rd, but New Mexico have beaten their own expected-goals numbers at both ends, and Monterey Bay have lost six of their last 10.
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Third-placed El Paso have taken 2.5 points a match lately, while Orange County have lost six of their last ten and conceded 23 goals. Past meetings between the sides have rarely produced many goals.
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Dennis's early double earned a match rating of 8.7, the highest on the pitch, and put New Mexico United 2-0 up at the break. Sebastian Lletget pulled one back two minutes after Hurst made it three.
3–1
Greg Hurst scored after five minutes and C. Wilkerson restored the lead in the 81st, while Phoenix Rising FC outshot their hosts by more than two to one.
2–1