Orange County's slide meets Phoenix Rising's mixed run, three points apart

The state of play

Orange County SC are 15th in the USL Championship with 39 points from 28 games. Phoenix Rising FC are 16th with 36. Three points separate them, and the visitors have the better goal difference: minus three against minus seven.

The hosts arrive in poor form. They have lost their last two and four of the last five (L-L-W-L-L). Across their last 10 they have one win, two draws and seven defeats, 0.5 points per match, with eight goals scored and 25 conceded.

Phoenix Rising's last five read W-L-L-L-W, so they have lost three in a row and then won. Over 10 matches they have four wins, two draws and four defeats, 1.4 points per match, with 15 goals for and 17 against. No absences are listed for either side.

Head to head

The two have met 29 times: Phoenix Rising have won 12, Orange County seven and 10 have been drawn. The average is 2.45 goals a game.

The latest meeting, on 15 March, finished 1-1. Before that, Orange County won 4-1 at home in July 2025, and Phoenix Rising won the June 2025 fixture 3-1 at home. Three of the last five were decided by two goals or more.

The numbers behind it

Orange County's expected goals explain why the defensive record worries. They have scored 37 goals from 32.9 expected, but conceded 44 against 45.5 expected. Their chances created are low, and their chances allowed are high.

Phoenix Rising have scored 39 from 40.6 expected and conceded 42 against 35.8 expected. They create more than the hosts and concede fewer chances, though they have let in more than the underlying figure suggests.

Our view

The betting market implies about 44% for a Phoenix Rising win, 26% for a draw and 30% for an Orange County win. Our model leans a little further towards the visitors, at 48%, with 25% for a draw and 28% for the hosts.

The gap between the two is small. It fits the hosts' recent run and their expected-goals figures, but these are estimates, not predictions. The market puts both sides scoring at about 59%, and our model at 61%. Football is high-variance, and a 10-match sample can mislead.