The state of play
San Antonio FC sit 14th on 39 points from 28 matches, with nine wins, 12 draws and seven defeats. Their goal difference is exactly zero, 29 scored and 29 conceded. The latest sequence reads draw, loss, draw, draw, loss.
New Mexico United are fourth on 49 points, with 14 wins, seven draws and seven defeats, and a goal difference of plus 11. Their last five league results run win, win, loss, loss, draw, so they come in without a win in three.
No absences are listed for either side, so there is no team news to weigh.
Head to head
Across 18 meetings, New Mexico have won 10, San Antonio seven and one has been drawn, an average of 2.83 goals per game. The recent picture is closer. San Antonio won the last two meetings in 2026, 1-0 at home in March and 2-1 away on 30 August.
Before that, New Mexico took three in a row: 4-2 in June 2025, 1-0 in September 2025 and 2-0 in November 2025. Of the last five, New Mexico have won three and San Antonio two.
The numbers behind it
San Antonio's problem in recent weeks is scoring. Over their last 10 matches they have won once, drawn four and lost five, scoring three goals and conceding 15, for 0.7 points per match. For the season, their 29 goals sit slightly below an expected-goals figure of 31.9.
New Mexico have taken 1.5 points per match over their last 10, with four wins, three draws and three defeats, and a goal tally of 18 for and 16 against. Over the season, their 44 goals beat their 32.9 expected goals by 11.1. They have also conceded 33 against an expected 48.4, which is 15.4 fewer than the chances suggested. That gap between output and chance quality is the main caveat on their fourth place.
Our view
The betting market implies about 48% for a San Antonio win, 25% for a draw and 26% for a New Mexico win. Our model is less convinced of the home side, at 40%, with the draw at 29% and an away win at 31%.
The gap is largest on the home win, eight percentage points. San Antonio's recent run and New Mexico's stronger season record point the model that way, though the head-to-head results favour the hosts. Both teams scoring is put at about 56% by the market and 46% by our model. These are estimates, and football is high-variance.
Market and model
Betting market · consensus of 15 bookmakersGiovePicks model
- Home win48% market40% model2.06 Fair odds implied by the market
- Draw25% market29% model3.94 Fair odds implied by the market
- Away win26% market31% model3.82 Fair odds implied by the market
Estimates built from public data, not advice or a tip. We do not take bets or recommend any operator. Football is high-variance and no estimate is a guarantee. 18+ only.