The state of play
Oakland Roots are 19th in the USL Championship on 34 points from 27 matches, four behind San Antonio FC in 14th. The gap is five places, but only four points separate them.
Oakland's last five league results read draw, win, win, defeat, draw. Over their last 10 they have won three, drawn four and lost three, an average of 1.3 points per match.
San Antonio's last five are defeat, draw, draw, defeat, draw, so they have not won in that spell. Across the last 10 they have one win, four draws and five defeats, which works out at 0.7 points per match. Their season record of nine wins, 11 draws and seven defeats still leaves them on a goal difference of 0, against Oakland's -2.
Head to head
The two have met 10 times: the away side has won five, the home side two, and three have been drawn. Those meetings have averaged 2.7 goals.
The pattern is clear in the latest five. Oakland won 1-0 at San Antonio on 23 August, and won 2-1 there in May 2025. San Antonio won 2-1 at Oakland in March 2025 and 1-0 in September 2024. The other meeting in that stretch finished 2-2. Home advantage has counted for little in this series.
The numbers behind it
Oakland have scored 33 and conceded 35 this season, from expected goals of 34.6 for and 37.6 against. Their output is close to what the chances suggest, with the defence a shade better than the expected figure.
San Antonio have scored 29 and conceded 29, against 30.5 expected for and 33.9 against. They have conceded less than the chances they have allowed would suggest, which makes their recent 16 goals against in 10 matches stand out.
At the other end, San Antonio have scored just four in those 10 matches. Oakland have scored eight and conceded eight in the same span, a far steadier balance.
Our view
The betting market implies about 40% for an Oakland win, 28% for a draw and 33% for a San Antonio win. Our model also puts Oakland at about 40%, but it leans higher on the draw at 33% and lower on a San Antonio win at 27%.
The difference sits mainly in San Antonio's recent run of one win in 10 and four goals scored, which our model appears to weigh more heavily. The gap is modest and uncertain, and football is high-variance.
On goals, the market implies about 53% for both sides to score, while our model sits lower at 42%. Both estimates describe likelihoods, not predictions.
Market and model
Betting market · consensus of 15 bookmakersGiovePicks model
- Home win40% market40% model2.53 Fair odds implied by the market
- Draw28% market33% model3.59 Fair odds implied by the market
- Away win33% market27% model3.06 Fair odds implied by the market
Estimates built from public data, not advice or a tip. We do not take bets or recommend any operator. Football is high-variance and no estimate is a guarantee. 18+ only.