The state of play
El Paso Locomotive sit third in the USL Championship with 47 points from 27 matches, a record of 14 wins, five draws and eight defeats. Orange County SC are 11th on 39 points, with 10 wins, nine draws and eight defeats. That is a gap of eight points and eight places.
The recent picture widens it. El Paso have won eight of their last 10, lost one and drawn one, scoring 19 and conceding eight for 2.5 points a match. Orange County have won two of their last 10, drawn two and lost six, scoring nine and conceding 23, which works out at 0.8 points a match.
Goal difference tells the same story over the full season: plus 11 for El Paso, minus six for Orange County.
Head to head
The sides have met 14 times, and five of those games ended level. Matches between them average 1.79 goals, so low scoring is the norm.
The last five meetings lean towards the visitors. Orange County won 2-0 at home on 2 August, drew 0-0 at El Paso in October 2025, and won 3-0 and 2-0 in their two earlier trips to El Paso. El Paso's one win in that run was 1-0 away in August 2024. Across those five games El Paso have scored once.
The numbers behind it
El Paso have scored 46 goals from 37.0 expected goals, nine more than the chances suggest. They have conceded 35 against 40.5 expected, so they are also getting more from their defence than the shot quality alone would predict.
Orange County have scored 36 from 32.1 expected goals and conceded 42 from 43.9 expected. Their expected-goals concession is the higher of the two sides, and their attack has created less than El Paso's.
El Paso's goals total is the main thing to test here. If the finishing cools, the underlying figures suggest a closer contest than the table gap implies.
Our view
The betting market implies about 58% for an El Paso win, 23% for a draw and 19% for an Orange County win. Our model leans higher on the hosts at 66%, with 19% for a draw and 15% for the visitors.
The difference is modest and rests largely on El Paso's recent results and home-side record in the season figures. These are estimates rather than predictions, and football is high-variance.
On goals, the market puts both teams scoring at about 54% and our model at 51%, close enough to treat as the same view.
Market and model
Betting market · consensus of 16 bookmakersGiovePicks model
- Home win58% market66% model1.72 Fair odds implied by the market
- Draw23% market19% model4.35 Fair odds implied by the market
- Away win19% market15% model5.26 Fair odds implied by the market
Estimates built from public data, not advice or a tip. We do not take bets or recommend any operator. Football is high-variance and no estimate is a guarantee. 18+ only.