The state of play
New Mexico United are fifth in the USL Championship with 46 points from 27 matches, built on 13 wins, seven draws and seven defeats. Monterey Bay FC are 23rd on 21 points, with five wins, six draws and 16 defeats. That is a gap of 25 points.
The recent sequences separate them further. New Mexico's last 10 read win, defeat, defeat, draw, draw, draw, win, defeat, win, draw: three wins, four draws and three defeats, worth 1.3 points a match. Monterey Bay have won one of their last 10, drawn three and lost six, an average of 0.6 points a match.
Both sides share the same most recent five-match sequence in the table, W-L-L-D-D, so neither arrives with a clear lift in momentum.
Head to head
New Mexico have won five of the nine meetings, Monterey Bay two, with two draws. Three of the last five went New Mexico's way, including a 5-2 win away from home on 9 August, one draw (1-1) and one Monterey Bay victory by 1-0.
Those nine games have averaged 3.22 goals, which is more than either side's season totals might suggest at first glance.
The numbers behind it
New Mexico have scored 41 goals and conceded 32, a goal difference of plus nine. Their expected goals for are 31 and against 46.8, so they have scored 10 more than the chances suggest and conceded almost 15 fewer than expected. That overperformance at both ends is the part of their record most open to correction.
Monterey Bay have scored 29 from 30.9 expected goals, which is close to par, but they have conceded 47 against 44.1 expected. Their goal difference is minus 18. Across their last 10 they have scored 12 and let in 20.
New Mexico's recent 10 returned 15 goals for and 15 against, so the defensive record is more even than the season figure of 32 conceded implies.
Our view
Our model gives New Mexico a 58% chance of winning, with a draw at 22% and a Monterey Bay win at 21%. The betting market is slightly lower on the home side but broadly in agreement, and it also has the draw at 22% and an away win at 21%. The gap between the two is small.
Both estimates see goals at both ends as more likely than not: the model puts both teams scoring at 62% and the market at 60%. That fits a head-to-head record averaging more than three goals a game. These are estimates, not predictions, and football is high-variance.
Market and model
Betting market · consensus of 16 bookmakersGiovePicks model
- Home win56% market58% model1.77 Fair odds implied by the market
- Draw22% market22% model4.45 Fair odds implied by the market
- Away win21% market21% model4.76 Fair odds implied by the market
Estimates built from public data, not advice or a tip. We do not take bets or recommend any operator. Football is high-variance and no estimate is a guarantee. 18+ only.