The state of play
Phoenix Rising FC sit 20th in the USL Championship with 33 points from 27 games. Las Vegas Lights are 16th on 36, so the gap between them is three points, and a home win would close it entirely.
Phoenix arrive on a sequence of defeat, defeat, defeat, win, draw, which means one unbeaten result after three straight losses. Las Vegas have alternated more than they have run: win, loss, draw, win, loss in their last five.
Over the last ten, Phoenix have won three, drawn three and lost four, a return of 1.2 points a match. Las Vegas have won four, drawn two and lost four, which averages 1.4.
Head to head
The clubs have met 23 times. Phoenix have won 11, Las Vegas six, and six have ended level.
Recent meetings have been tight and low-scoring. The most recent, on 2 August, finished 1-1. Before that, Las Vegas won 1-0 in February, the sides drew 0-0 in September 2025, and Phoenix won 1-0 in May 2025. Las Vegas also won 2-1 in Phoenix in September 2024. Across all 23 meetings the average is 3.35 goals, but the last five have produced seven in total.
The numbers behind it
Phoenix have scored 36 and conceded 40, a goal difference of -4. Their expected goals tell a kinder story: 38 for and 35.1 against, so they have created more and allowed less than the scoreline suggests.
Las Vegas have scored 35 and conceded 38, a goal difference of -3, against expected figures of 34.1 for and 37.6 against. Their results sit almost exactly where their chances say they should.
In the last ten matches Phoenix have scored 13 and conceded 16. Las Vegas have scored 10 and conceded 11, a more cautious profile at both ends.
Our view
The betting market implies about 50% for a Phoenix win, 23% for a draw and 27% for a Las Vegas win. Our model leans slightly lower on the hosts at 45%, with 24% for the draw and 31% for the visitors.
The gap is small. It fits with Phoenix's recent run of one win in five, set against their stronger expected-goals record. For both sides to score, the market implies about 61% and our model 58%. These are estimates, and football is high-variance.
Market and model
Betting market · consensus of 15 bookmakersGiovePicks model
- Home win50% market45% model2.00 Fair odds implied by the market
- Draw23% market24% model4.32 Fair odds implied by the market
- Away win27% market31% model3.72 Fair odds implied by the market
Estimates built from public data, not advice or a tip. We do not take bets or recommend any operator. Football is high-variance and no estimate is a guarantee. 18+ only.