FC Tulsa's draw habit meets Oakland Roots' struggle for a way out of the bottom half

The state of play

FC Tulsa are eighth in the USL Championship with 43 points from 28 games, eight clear of Oakland Roots SC in 19th on 35. Tulsa have won 11, drawn 10 and lost seven. Oakland have won eight, drawn 11 and lost nine.

Draws define both sides. Tulsa have drawn four of their last five, with one win in the sequence. Oakland's last five read draw, draw, win, win, defeat. Over the last 10 matches the two clubs are identical: three wins, five draws, two defeats and 1.4 points per match.

Neither club has any absences listed, and there is no relevant team news to report for either.

Head to head

The sides have met six times, with two wins each and two draws. The most recent two meetings both ended 1-1, one in each stadium, and the five latest games produced just nine goals between them.

Home advantage has meant little: Oakland won 2-1 in Tulsa in April 2025, and Tulsa's 1-0 win in 2024 came in Oakland. Meetings average 1.67 goals, so this is a pairing that tends to stay tight.

The numbers behind it

Tulsa's defence is the sharpest asset on the pitch. They have conceded 25 goals, against 35 for Oakland, and their expected goals against of 27.9 is the lowest figure of either side. Their goal difference is +7; Oakland's is -2.

At the other end Tulsa have scored 32 from 37.5 expected goals, so their finishing has lagged the chances they create. Oakland have scored 33 from 36.2 and conceded 35 from 39.0, a side performing close to its underlying numbers.

The recent record is more open than the full-season one. Tulsa have scored 12 and conceded eight in their last 10; Oakland have scored eight and conceded seven.

Our view

The betting market implies about 46% for a Tulsa win, 27% for a draw and 27% for an Oakland win. Our model leans a little less towards the hosts at 41%, with the draw at 33% and an Oakland win at 26%.

The gap sits mainly in the draw. Both clubs have drawn five of their last 10, and Tulsa have drawn 10 times this season, which pushes our estimate up. On goals, the market puts both teams scoring at about 53%, while our model has it at 43%, reflecting Tulsa's low expected goals against.

These are estimates, not predictions, and the differences are modest. Football is high-variance, and two evenly matched recent records leave plenty of room for any result.