The state of play
Third meets sixth, and the contrast is in the goals. El Paso Locomotive have scored 48 times, Sacramento Republic have conceded only 26. Both sides sit on a goal difference of +12.
El Paso have 50 points from 28 games, five more than Sacramento's 45. Their last ten read eight wins, one draw and one defeat, worth 2.5 points a match. Sacramento have won four and drawn six of their last ten without losing, a return of 1.8 points a match.
Neither club has a player listed as injured or suspended.
Head to head
The two have met 13 times and not once has the game ended level. El Paso have won eight of those and Sacramento five.
The last five meetings split three to two in El Paso's favour. The most recent, in Sacramento, ended 2-1 to the visitors. Meetings have averaged 2.38 goals, so this pairing has rarely been a low-scoring one.
The numbers behind it
El Paso's attack has outrun its chances. They have 48 goals from 38.6 expected, a surplus of 9.4. At the other end they have allowed 36 against 41.3 expected, so the defence has also done slightly better than the chances conceded suggest.
Sacramento's profile is steadier. They have 38 goals from 40 expected and have conceded 26 against 28.9 expected. Their 12 draws are the most of any figure in either record, and only five defeats show how hard they are to beat.
In the last ten, El Paso have scored 20 and conceded nine. Sacramento have scored 14 and conceded 10, so their games have been tighter and closer.
Our view
The betting market implies about 35% for an El Paso win, 28% for a draw and 38% for a Sacramento win. Our model leans the other way, at 38% for El Paso, 26% for a draw and 35% for Sacramento. The gap is only three percentage points on each side, which is small and uncertain.
The model's lean fits El Paso's recent results and home venue, but Sacramento's unbeaten ten keeps the market cautious. Both sources put the chance of both sides scoring at roughly 55%: 56% from the model and 55% from the market. They also agree on a clean sheet for either side at about 44% to 45%. Football is high-variance, and this is an estimate, not a forecast.
Market and model
Betting market · consensus of 15 bookmakersGiovePicks model
- Home win35% market38% model2.88 Fair odds implied by the market
- Draw28% market26% model3.63 Fair odds implied by the market
- Away win38% market35% model2.65 Fair odds implied by the market
Estimates built from public data, not advice or a tip. We do not take bets or recommend any operator. Football is high-variance and no estimate is a guarantee. 18+ only.