Analysis, not fortune.
Brazil
14 stories
A first-half red card for Ajul left Sport Recife a man down at the break, and Fortaleza scored in stoppage time and again in the 69th minute to go on and win. Sport had 19 shots but put only two on target.
0–2
The side in 20th has conceded 73 goals and lost nine of its last ten. Visitors in sixth have taken two points a match over the same stretch, and the market and our model both make them clear favourites.
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Ponte Preta managed eight shots to Atlético Goianiense's 33, yet led until the 87th minute and finished with a point. The goalkeeper's match rating of 9 was the highest on the pitch.
1–1
Joao Miguel scored in the 18th and 89th minutes to earn a 2-2 draw after João Vitor's two penalties put Londrina in front. Londrina had the better expected goals, 2.16 to 1.35.
2–2
Athletic Club will be without a striker who scored seven times in his recent starts, facing a Londrina side that won the only previous meeting 2-0 in June. The gap between them is 14 points.
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Botafogo-SP have taken 0.8 points a match across their last 10, while Ceará sit one place higher and have won three of the last five meetings between the sides.
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Náutico sit 13th on 42 points, while Grêmio Novorizontino arrive third with 54 and only 27 goals conceded in 31 games. The sides drew 2-2 when they last met in June.
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A goalless first half became a 3-1 CRB win, with nine shots on target to two and a match rating of 8.5 for Lyncon, the highest on the pitch.
3–1
The Serie B leaders host 10th-placed Cuiabá in Goiânia, but the visitors have won two of the last three meetings, including 1-0 in June.
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Eighth meets 16th in Ponta Grossa on Matchday 32. Botafogo-SP have taken 0.8 points per match across their last 10, yet their expected-goals record tells a kinder story than the table.
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Botafogo-SP came from a first-minute deficit to win 2-1 at Operário-PR, with Brey recording a match rating of 9.6 and Operário finishing with 10 men.
1–2
Only two points separate the sides before Matchday 32 at the Ressacada, and both arrive with three defeats in their latest five-match sequence.
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Goiás sit 14th and Athletic Club 12th, separated only by goal difference. Goiás have yet to beat this opponent in three meetings.
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Ninth meets 11th at Ilha do Retiro on Matchday 32. Both sides average 1.5 points a game over their last ten, and their only meeting this season ended goalless.
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