Third-placed Novorizontino visit Náutico, 12 points clear and conceding rarely

The state of play

Matchday 32 of the Brasileirão Serie B brings third to 13th at the Estádio dos Aflitos in Recife, with kick-off at 22:30 UTC on 8 October. Grêmio Novorizontino have 54 points from 31 games, 12 more than Náutico's 42.

The visitors have won 15, drawn nine and lost seven, and their goal difference of +25 is the product of 52 scored and 27 conceded. Náutico have won 11, drawn nine and lost 11, scoring 39 and conceding 38 for a goal difference of +1.

The league sequences are closer than the table. Novorizontino's last five read W-D-L-D-W; Náutico's read D-W-L-D-L.

Head to head

The sides have met three times in the supplied record: one win each and one draw. Náutico won 3-1 at home on 2 July 2022. Novorizontino won 6-0 at home on 15 October 2022. The most recent meeting, on 14 June 2026, finished 2-2 at Novorizontino's ground.

Those games averaged 4.67 goals, though three matches is a small sample.

The numbers behind it

Novorizontino's defensive record is backed by the underlying data. They have conceded 27 goals against 29.7 expected, and they have scored 52 from 51.7 expected. Their results are in line with their chances.

Náutico's figures are balanced: 43.5 expected goals for and 43.4 against, against actual totals of 39 and 38. The league position looks like a fair reflection of a side that has created and allowed chances in roughly equal measure.

Over the last 10 matches, Novorizontino have won six, drawn three and lost one, scoring 20 and conceding seven, an average of 2.1 points a game. Their run reads WDLDWWWWWD, which includes five wins in six. Náutico have won four, drawn four and lost two in the same span, scoring 14 and conceding 13, an average of 1.6 points a game.

Our view

The betting market implies about 42% for a Novorizontino win, 27% for a draw and 31% for a Náutico win. Our model leans further towards the visitors, at 47%, with 26% for the draw and 28% for the home side.

The gap between the two is a few percentage points and is consistent with the supplied numbers: Novorizontino's recent record of 2.1 points a game and their goal difference of +25 against Náutico's +1. These are estimates, not predictions, and football is a high-variance sport in which a 47% chance still leaves the other outcomes at 53% combined.

On goals, the market puts over 2.5 at 50%, and our model is slightly higher at 53%. That difference is small and uncertain.