The state of play
Avaí and Londrina meet at the Estádio da Ressacada in Florianópolis on 7 October, kick-off 22:30 UTC, separated by two points and one place in the Brasileirão Serie B table.
Avaí sit 17th on 30 points from 31 matches, with eight wins, six draws and 17 defeats. Londrina are 18th on 28 points from the same number of games, with seven wins, seven draws and 17 defeats. Both sides have lost exactly as often, so the fixture is a direct contest between neighbours in the lower reaches of the table.
Neither arrives in good shape. Avaí's five-match sequence reads L-L-L-D-L, and their last ten show three wins, one draw and six defeats for one point per match. Londrina's five-match sequence reads L-L-L-W-W; over ten games they have two wins, two draws and six defeats, at 0.8 points per match. Bruno Mota Correia is the referee.
Head to head
The sides have met nine times, with five wins for the home side, three draws and one away win, and an average of 2.22 goals per game.
The most recent meeting, on 16 June this year, went Londrina's way, 3-2 at home. Before that came a 1-1 draw at Londrina in October 2023 and a goalless draw at Avaí in June 2023. Avaí won both meetings in 2021: 2-0 at home in September and 3-1 away in June.
The numbers behind it
The goal difference column favours the visitors. Londrina have scored 39 and conceded 45, a goal difference of -6, while Avaí have scored 30 and conceded 42 for -12. Londrina's attack has produced nine more goals than Avaí's across the season.
Expected goals tell a similar story. Avaí have generated 30.2 xG and allowed 37.7 over 31 games, so their scoring sits close to the chances they create, while they have conceded more than the 37.7 xG against would suggest. Londrina have created 35.7 xG and allowed 41.2, scoring above their chance quality and conceding slightly above it too.
Recent form is tight at both ends. Avaí have scored nine and conceded 14 in their last ten; Londrina have scored 12 and conceded 13 over the same span. On those figures Londrina have found the net more often, while neither defence has offered much protection.
The table places Avaí ahead and gives them home advantage; the underlying attacking numbers lean towards Londrina. With so little between the sides, a single result here could reorder the bottom of the table either way.