The state of play
Sixteenth hosts fifteenth, with four points between them. Ceará have 42 from 32 matches; Botafogo-SP have 38. The gap is small, but the direction of travel is not.
Botafogo-SP have won two, drawn two and lost six of their last 10, an average of 0.8 points a match. Their latest five read win, defeat, win, draw, defeat. Ceará have won five, drawn two and lost three of their last 10, 1.7 points a match, and are unbeaten in their last five with three wins and two draws.
The home side will be without Carlão, who is out with a knee injury. He has made six starts in eight recent matches, so his absence removes a regular. He has not scored in that spell. Ceará have no absences listed.
Head to head
Ceará have the better of the five meetings: three wins to one, with one draw. They won 3-0 and 4-1 on their own ground in 2023 and 2024, and 4-1 away in November 2024.
The most recent meeting went the other way. Botafogo-SP won 1-0 away on 20 June 2026, their only victory in the series. Those five matches have produced 3.6 goals on average, well above what two sides with these defensive records would suggest.
The numbers behind it
Botafogo-SP have scored 36 goals and conceded 38, a goal difference of -2. Their expected goals tally is 36.5 for and 31.8 against, so they have let in about six more than the chances they allowed would suggest. Ceará have scored 35 and conceded 39 (-4), against 37.5 expected for and 41.7 against.
Recent scoring is close: Botafogo-SP have 9 goals in their last 10 matches, Ceará 12. The difference is at the back, where Botafogo-SP have conceded 16 in that spell and Ceará 11.
Our view
The betting market implies about 45% for a home win, 29% for a draw and 26% for an away win. Our model is less convinced by the hosts, leaning to 41% for Botafogo-SP, 29% for the draw and 30% for Ceará. The gap is modest and sits alongside the sides' very different recent records.
Both lean towards a low-scoring match: the model gives under 2.5 goals about 60%, the market 59%. Both put both teams scoring at about 46%. These are estimates, and football is high-variance.
Market and model
Betting market · consensus of 17 bookmakersGiovePicks model
- Home win45% market41% model2.24 Fair odds implied by the market
- Draw29% market29% model3.42 Fair odds implied by the market
- Away win26% market30% model3.83 Fair odds implied by the market
- Over 2.5 goals41% market40% model2.45 Fair odds implied by the market
- Under 2.5 goals59% market60% model1.69 Fair odds implied by the market
Estimates built from public data, not advice or a tip. We do not take bets or recommend any operator. Football is high-variance and no estimate is a guarantee. 18+ only.