The state of play
Athletic Club are without Ronaldo Tavares, and that is the biggest story going into Matchday 33. The regular starter is out with an ACL knee injury, having scored seven goals in seven starts across eight recent appearances. Athletic Club have scored 38 in 32league games, so losing that source of goals matters.
The table puts the hosts 13th on 42 points, from 10 wins, 12 draws and 10 defeats. Londrina are 18th on 28 points, with seven wins, seven draws and 18 defeats. That is a gap of 14 points and five places.
Neither side arrives in form. Athletic Club's last five league matches read two defeats, two draws and a win. Londrina's read four defeats and a win. Over the last 10, the records are identical: two wins, two draws and six defeats each, an average of 0.8 points per match.
Head to head
The sides have met once recently. In June, Londrina won 2-0 with Athletic Club the visitors. It is a single result, so it says little about this fixture, but it does mean Londrina hold the only win in the series.
The numbers behind it
Athletic Club's goal difference is +1, from 38 scored and 37 conceded. Londrina's is -7, from 40 scored and 47 conceded. The hosts have conceded fewer than their expected goals against of 44.2 suggest, while their 38 goals beat an expected 34.1.
Londrina's totals are similar in shape: 40 goals against an expected 36.3, and 47 conceded against 42.1 expected. Their defence has leaked more than the chances they have faced would suggest, and their attack has outscored its xG.
In the last 10 matches, Athletic Club have scored 14 and conceded 18. Londrina have scored 12 and conceded 13. Both sides have been involved in goals at similar rates, with the hosts slightly more open.
Our view
The betting market implies about 44% for an Athletic Club win, 29% for a draw and 28% for a Londrina win. Our model leans slightly higher on the hosts at 45%, with 27% for the draw and 28% for the visitors. The differences are small.
On goals, the market gives about 42% to three or more in the match, while our model puts it at 49%. It also rates both sides scoring at 53%, against about 49% from the market. Football is high-variance, and these are estimates rather than predictions.
Market and model
Betting market · consensus of 15 bookmakersGiovePicks model
- Home win44% market45% model2.29 Fair odds implied by the market
- Draw29% market27% model3.47 Fair odds implied by the market
- Away win28% market28% model3.64 Fair odds implied by the market
- Over 2.5 goals42% market49% model2.39 Fair odds implied by the market
- Under 2.5 goals58% market51% model1.72 Fair odds implied by the market
Estimates built from public data, not advice or a tip. We do not take bets or recommend any operator. Football is high-variance and no estimate is a guarantee. 18+ only.