The state of play
Ponte Preta sit 20th in the Série B with 13 points from 33 matches: three wins, four draws and 26 defeats. Atlético Goianiense are sixth on 53 points, a gap of 40, with 14 wins, 11 draws and eight defeats.
The recent run widens it. Ponte Preta have won once in their last ten and lost the other nine, scoring two goals and conceding 25. Atlético have won six, drawn two and lost two in that time, scoring 17 and conceding eight.
On team news, no absences are listed for either side. Portal CB reports that the injured André Lima has still not settled his future at Ponte Preta. Diário do Estado says Netinho is available for Atlético, while Dragão Goiano claims the visitors have lost an important player for the match, without that being confirmed here.
Head to head
Atlético have the better of the 18 meetings: ten wins to Ponte Preta's three, with five draws. They have won four of the last five, the latest 2-0 on 28 June and 1-0 on 18 March, and the other was a goalless draw.
Ponte Preta scored in none of those five games. The meetings have averaged 2.67 goals.
The numbers behind it
Ponte Preta's expected goals tell the same story as their results. They have created 30.5 xG and scored 18, but their opponents have produced 60.6 xG against them and scored 73. That is 12.4 more than the chances alone suggest, so the defence has also been unlucky, yet even the underlying figure is far worse than any other side's here.
Atlético's goal difference is plus 10, from 41 scored and 31 conceded. Their expected goals are 46.6 for and 39.3 against, so they have scored fewer than their chances suggest and conceded fewer than expected. The underlying numbers are positive, though less dominant than the table position implies.
Our view
The betting market implies about 8% for a Ponte Preta win, 17% for a draw and 75% for an Atlético win. Our model leans slightly further towards the visitors at 78%, with 16% for a draw and 7% for the hosts. The gap is small, and it matches the recent run of results.
On goals, the market implies about 56% for three or more, and our model puts it at 55%. Both sides scoring is rated at 42% by the market and 38% by our model, while a clean sheet for at least one side is 58% and 62% respectively. These are estimates, not predictions, and football is high-variance.
Market and model
Betting market · consensus of 7 bookmakersGiovePicks model
- Home win8% market7% model12.60 Fair odds implied by the market
- Draw17% market16% model5.75 Fair odds implied by the market
- Away win75% market78% model1.34 Fair odds implied by the market
- Over 2.5 goals56% market55% model1.80 Fair odds implied by the market
- Under 2.5 goals44% market45% model2.25 Fair odds implied by the market
Estimates built from public data, not advice or a tip. We do not take bets or recommend any operator. Football is high-variance and no estimate is a guarantee. 18+ only.