Analysis, not fortune.
Turkey
7 stories
Çorum FK have scored 16 in seven league games, more than double Çaykur Rizespor's seven. Yet the visitors have the better underlying numbers at the back, and the two sides sit two places apart on equal points.
vs
Göztepe won 4-0 after A. Abdullahi was sent off in the ninth minute. Henrique scored all three of his goals after the break, one from the penalty spot, and finished with a match rating of 9.2.
0–4
Trabzonspor scored three times in 13 first-half minutes, lost Kabasakal to a red card on 43 minutes, then kept a clean sheet against a home side that had 23 shots.
0–3
Sixteenth-placed Samsunspor have conceded 12 in six league games, while seventh-placed Trabzonspor have let in only five. The market makes the visitors favourites, and our model leans a little further their way.
vs
Table-topping Amed Sportif Faaliyetler have scored 15 in six games and face a side that has shipped 13. Gençlerbirliği's expected goals suggest the leaky defence is no fluke.
vs
Lucas Torreira was sent off in the 65th minute and Kasımpaşa equalised three minutes later, yet Galatasaray found two more goals after 90 minutes in a derby that Andreas Gianniotis nearly held for the visitors.
3–1
Second-placed Galatasaray have created 13.7 expected goals in six games, but Kasımpaşa have not lost in the league and have conceded only six goals in their last 10 matches.
vs