Çorum's goals meet Rizespor's tighter defence, with both sides level on 10 points

The state of play

Eighth hosts tenth, and the points are identical. Both Çorum FK and Çaykur Rizespor have 10 from seven games, each with three wins, one draw and three defeats. Goal difference is what separates them: Çorum are on +4, Rizespor on -2.

Çorum's league sequence reads win, loss, win, win, loss. Rizespor's reads loss, draw, win, loss, win. Neither side has built a run to lean on.

On team news, Rizespor's only listed absentee is Husniddin Aliqulov, out with a cruciate ligament injury. He has started three of his last eight squad appearances and has not scored in that spell. Çorum have no absentees listed.

The numbers behind it

Çorum are the league's contrast in miniature. They have scored 16 goals from 8.9 expected, a surplus of 7.1, so finishing has done much of the work. They have also conceded 12 against 10.2 expected, which suggests the defence has been slightly worse than the chances it has allowed.

Rizespor are the mirror image in attack. They have scored seven from 9.5 expected, 2.5 short, while their nine conceded is close to the 8.7 expected. Their chance creation has been better than their return, and their defence has performed roughly as the numbers suggest.

Over the last 10 matches, Rizespor have won six, drawn one and lost three, scoring 14 and conceding 11 for 1.9 points per match. Çorum's last seven give 1.43 points per match, with 16 scored and 12 conceded.

Our view

The betting market implies about 46% for a Çorum win, 26% for a draw and 29% for a Rizespor win. Our model leans higher on the hosts at 54%, with the draw at about 23% and the away side at 23%.

The gap is sizeable, and it rests mostly on Çorum's goal output. The expected-goals figures are a caution, since Çorum's attack has run well above its chance quality. For goals, the market implies about 54% for more than 2.5 and our model says 60%. These are estimates, not predictions, and football is high-variance.