The state of play
Second meets eighth in Istanbul, and the contrast is in how each side collects points. Galatasaray have 13 from six games, with four wins, one draw and one defeat. Their latest sequence reads one defeat followed by four wins.
Kasımpaşa have 10 points from the same number of games, built on two wins and four draws. They are the only side in this fixture yet to lose in the league, and their sequence of draw, win, draw, draw, win keeps that record intact.
Goal difference is close: plus three for Galatasaray, plus two for Kasımpaşa. The visitors have scored seven and conceded five; the hosts have scored 13 and let in 10.
Head to head
Galatasaray have won 21 of the 34 meetings, 62%, against eight for Kasımpaşa and five draws. The fixture is usually open, averaging 3.44 goals.
The recent meetings have been less one-sided than that record suggests. Two of the last five finished 3-3, and Galatasaray won 4-3 in March 2024. Galatasaray then won 3-0 at home on 21 December, but Kasımpaşa won 1-0 at home on 17 May.
The numbers behind it
Galatasaray's expected goals for stand at 13.7 against 13 actual goals, so the attack has been close to its output. The defence is the question: expected goals against is 6.6, yet they have conceded 10, 3.4 more than the chances they allowed would suggest.
Kasımpaşa's figures are tighter. They have 6.3 expected goals for and seven scored, with 5.7 against and five conceded.
Over the last 10 matches, Kasımpaşa have five wins and five draws, scoring 15 and conceding six, a return of two points per match. Galatasaray have four wins, three draws and three defeats in that time, scoring 21 and conceding 21, or 1.5 points per match.
Our view
The betting market implies about 75% for a Galatasaray win, 16% for a draw and 10% for a Kasımpaşa win. Our model is more cautious on the hosts at 65%, with the draw at 19% and the away side at 16%.
The gap is sizeable but explainable: Galatasaray have conceded more than their expected goals against, and Kasımpaşa have not lost in their last 10. On goals, the market puts over 2.5 at about 65% and our model at 61%. These are estimates, and football is high-variance.
Market and model
Betting market · consensus of 14 bookmakersGiovePicks model
- Home win75% market65% model1.34 Fair odds implied by the market
- Draw16% market19% model6.30 Fair odds implied by the market
- Away win10% market16% model10.50 Fair odds implied by the market
- Over 2.5 goals65% market61% model1.53 Fair odds implied by the market
- Under 2.5 goals35% market39% model2.88 Fair odds implied by the market
Estimates built from public data, not advice or a tip. We do not take bets or recommend any operator. Football is high-variance and no estimate is a guarantee. 18+ only.