The state of play
Samsunspor sit 16th with four points from six games, and the defensive column explains why. They have conceded 12 goals and scored six, a goal difference of -6. Their last five league results contain four defeats and one win.
Trabzonspor are seventh on 10 points, with three wins, one draw and two defeats. They have scored 13 and conceded five, a goal difference of +8, and their last five league results read win, loss, win, loss, win.
Over the last 10 matches in all, the gap is smaller than the table suggests. Samsunspor have won three, drawn two and lost five, at 1.1 points per match. Trabzonspor have won three, drawn one and lost six, at one point per match.
Head to head
The two have met 48 times, with nine draws. The away side in this pairing has won 28 of those meetings and the home side 11, and the average is 2.94 goals a game.
The recent picture is more even. Samsunspor won 3-1 and 2-1 in the two meetings from 2024 and January 2025, then drew 2-2 and 1-1. Trabzonspor won the latest meeting 3-0.
The numbers behind it
Trabzonspor's defensive record is better than their chances conceded would suggest. They have allowed five goals from 9.2 expected goals against, so four fewer than the chances imply. At the other end they have scored 13 from 10.0 expected goals.
Samsunspor's numbers point the other way at both ends. They have scored six from 6.4 expected goals, close to par, but conceded 12 from 8.7. That is a leak of more than three goals beyond what the chances against them suggest.
Trabzonspor have a clear edge in the underlying figures too: 10.0 expected goals for against Samsunspor's 6.4, and 9.2 against compared with 8.7.
Our view
The betting market implies about 47% for a Trabzonspor win, 25% for a draw and 27% for a Samsunspor win. Our model leans slightly further towards the visitors, at 53%, with 23% for the draw and 24% for the hosts.
The gap between the two is modest and rests on the same evidence: Trabzonspor's stronger goals and expected-goals record this season. Both put both teams scoring at around 58% to 59%, and more than 2.5 goals at about 57% to 58%. Football is high-variance, and these are estimates rather than predictions.
Market and model
Betting market · consensus of 14 bookmakersGiovePicks model
- Home win27% market24% model3.66 Fair odds implied by the market
- Draw25% market23% model3.93 Fair odds implied by the market
- Away win47% market53% model2.12 Fair odds implied by the market
- Over 2.5 goals57% market58% model1.77 Fair odds implied by the market
- Under 2.5 goals43% market42% model2.30 Fair odds implied by the market
Estimates built from public data, not advice or a tip. We do not take bets or recommend any operator. Football is high-variance and no estimate is a guarantee. 18+ only.