The state of play
Gençlerbirliği are 13th with seven points from six games, having won two, drawn one and lost three. Their goal difference of -8 is built on 13 conceded and only five scored.
Amed Sportif Faaliyetler lead the division on 13 points, six clear of their hosts, with four wins, one draw and one defeat. Their goal difference is +8.
The league sequences point in opposite directions. Amed's reads WWDWL, while Gençlerbirliği's reads LLLDW, which is three defeats followed by a draw and a win.
The numbers behind it
Expected goals back up the home side's record rather than excusing it. Gençlerbirliği have created 5.9 xG and scored five, but have conceded 13 from 13.4 xG against. The defensive figure is the problem, and the results match the chances.
Amed have outscored their own underlying figures. They have 15 goals from 11 xG, four more than the chances alone would suggest, and have conceded seven from 5.9 xG against. Their process is strong, though the finishing may be running a little hot.
Over the last 10 matches the gap holds. Amed have won seven, drawn two and lost one, scoring 21 and conceding eight for 2.3 points per match. Gençlerbirliği have won four, drawn one and lost five, scoring 11 and conceding 19 for 1.3.
Our view
The betting market implies about 36% for a home win, 27% for a draw and 37% for an away win. That is almost a level contest, with Amed fractionally ahead.
Our model leans more clearly towards the visitors at 48%, with 29% for Gençlerbirliği and 23% for a draw. The difference comes from the recent record and the defensive numbers: 19 goals conceded in 10 matches for the hosts, against eight for Amed.
On goals, the market implies about 54% for over 2.5 and our model 61%. Both are estimates, not predictions, and a single football match carries plenty of variance.
Market and model
Betting market · consensus of 13 bookmakersGiovePicks model
- Home win36% market29% model2.77 Fair odds implied by the market
- Draw27% market23% model3.72 Fair odds implied by the market
- Away win37% market48% model2.70 Fair odds implied by the market
- Over 2.5 goals54% market61% model1.86 Fair odds implied by the market
- Under 2.5 goals46% market39% model2.17 Fair odds implied by the market
Estimates built from public data, not advice or a tip. We do not take bets or recommend any operator. Football is high-variance and no estimate is a guarantee. 18+ only.