The state of play
Wieczysta Kraków sit 17th in the Ekstraklasa with 5 points from eight games: one win, two draws and five defeats. Their sequence of draw, defeat, draw, defeat, defeat means they go into this fixture five matches without a win.
Wisła Płock are 11th on 11 points, from three wins, two draws and three defeats. Their sequence reads win, win, draw, defeat, defeat, so they have lost their last two after a good start. Even so, they are six points clear of their hosts.
Over the last 10 matches the gap widens. Płock have won five, drawn two and lost three, an average of 1.7 points a match. Wieczysta have won two, drawn two and lost six, an average of 0.8.
The numbers behind it
Defence is the hosts' problem. Wieczysta have conceded 17 goals in eight games, a goal difference of -6, yet the quality of chances they have allowed totals 12.7 expected goals. That is 4.3 goals fewer than they have actually shipped. Over their last 10 matches they have let in 23 while scoring 16.
At the other end, they have scored 11 from 12.7 expected goals, a shortfall of 1.7. Their expected goals for and against are level at 12.7 each, which suggests a side closer to even than its position implies.
Płock have the opposite issue in attack. They have scored nine from 12.4 expected goals, 3.4 below the level of their chances, and the goal difference of -3 reflects that. They have conceded 12 against 12.9 expected, so their defence is performing about as its chances allowed. Across the last 10 matches they have scored 15 and conceded 15.
Our view
The betting market implies about 43% for a Wieczysta win, 27% for a draw and 30% for a Płock win. Our model is close, at 41% for the hosts, 26% for a draw and 33% for the visitors.
The model leans slightly more towards Płock than the market does. The gap is three percentage points, and it fits their stronger recent points per match. It is small, and it comes with real uncertainty: football is high-variance, and Wieczysta's expected-goals balance suggests their results may not be a true guide to their level. These are estimates of probability, not predictions.
Market and model
Betting market · consensus of 7 bookmakersGiovePicks model
- Home win43% market41% model2.31 Fair odds implied by the market
- Draw27% market26% model3.77 Fair odds implied by the market
- Away win30% market33% model3.30 Fair odds implied by the market
Estimates built from public data, not advice or a tip. We do not take bets or recommend any operator. Football is high-variance and no estimate is a guarantee. 18+ only.