Motor Lublin host Śląsk Wrocław with three points and three places between two struggling sides

The state of play

Motor Lublin are 14th with nine points from ten games. Śląsk Wrocław are 17th with six. Three points separate them, and neither side has much to lean on.

Motor have won twice, drawn three times and lost five. Their table sequence reads W-D-L-L-L, so the latest run is a difficult one. Śląsk have won once, drawn three times and lost six, and their sequence reads L-L-L-L-D.

Śląsk will be without Michał Mokrzycki, who is out with a cruciate ligament injury. He had started four of his last eight appearances without scoring. No absences are listed for Motor.

Head to head

The two have met twice recently. Motor won 2-1 at home on 28 September 2024, and the return fixture at Śląsk finished 1-1 on 5 April 2025.

That leaves Motor unbeaten in the pair, with one win and one draw. The meetings averaged 2.5 goals, so both sides have found the net each time.

The numbers behind it

Both sides have scored 12 league goals. The gap is at the back: Motor have conceded 17 for a goal difference of -5, while Śląsk have conceded 19 for -7.

Expected goals give Motor a small edge. They have created 15.1 and allowed 15.2, almost exactly level. Śląsk have created 13.4 and allowed 17.8, so their defence has been giving up a lot of good chances, not just unlucky goals.

Over their last ten games in all, Motor have won three, drawn two and lost five, a return of 1.1 points a match. Śląsk have won once, drawn three times and lost six, which is 0.6 points a match. Their sequence in that period is L-L-L-L-L-W-D-D-L-D.

Our view

The betting market implies about 48% for a Motor win, 25% for a draw and 27% for a Śląsk win. Our model leans slightly higher on the hosts at 51%, with the draw at 24% and the away side at 25%.

The difference is small. It fits with Motor's more even expected-goals balance against Śląsk's leakier one, but the margins are narrow. On goals, the market implies about 60% for more than 2.5 and our model sits a touch higher at 61%.

These are estimates, not predictions, and football is high-variance.