Widzew Łódź, winless in the league bar one, meet Wisła Kraków, who have won nine of 11 against them

The state of play

Widzew Łódź sit 13th with nine points from ten games: one win, six draws and three defeats. Their league sequence reads loss, draw, draw, draw, loss, so the last five have brought three points at most from a possible 15, and they have taken only two of those.

Wisła Kraków are sixth on 17 points, eight more than their hosts, with five wins, two draws and three defeats. Their latest run is loss, win, win, draw, win, which means they have lost only one of their last five league games.

Widzew will be without three regular starters. Carlos Isaac (ligament injury), Lukas Lerager (cruciate ligament injury) and Paulinho Bóia (calf injury) are all listed as injured, and each has scored one goal recently. Szymon Czyż, a rotation player, is also out with a cruciate ligament injury. No absences are listed for Wisła.

Head to head

Wisła have dominated this fixture. In 11 meetings they have won nine, Widzew one and one has been drawn. Wisła won the most recent meeting 2-1 at home in February 2024, and they won 3-1 in Lodz in December 2021.

Widzew's one win came in April 2014, by the same 2-1 score. Meetings have averaged 2.18 goals, a figure that points to modest scoring rather than open games.

The numbers behind it

Wisła's underlying numbers are the stronger. They have created 18.7 expected goals and conceded 11.4 over ten games, against 16.0 created and 16.8 conceded by Widzew. Wisła have scored 17 and let in 14, a goal difference of +3. Widzew's is -1, from 14 scored and 15 conceded.

Over their last ten matches in all, Wisła have won five, drawn two and lost three, scoring 19 and conceding 13, for 1.7 points per match. Widzew have won once, drawn five and lost four, scoring 18 and conceding 16, for 0.8 points per match.

Widzew's numbers suggest a side that scores but cannot close out results. Their 18 goals in ten recent matches have yielded only eight points.

Our view

The betting market implies about 41% for a Widzew win, 26% for a draw and 33% for a Wisła win. Our model leans slightly towards the visitors: 39% for the hosts, 26% for a draw and 35% for Wisła. The gap is small and sits within the uncertainty of any estimate.

The model puts the chance of both sides scoring at 60% and of more than 2.5 goals at 57%, close to the market's 60% and 56%. Football is high-variance, and these are estimates, not predictions.