Analysis, not fortune.
Colombia
12 stories
Sixth hosts seventh in Matchday 15 with nothing to separate them on points. Medellín have scored 18 goals in their last ten, double Once Caldas's nine, but will be without Juan Fernando Quintero.
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Tenth-placed Junior face the side 20th in the Primera A table, who have conceded 49 goals in 31 games. Junior are without regular Mauro Silveira.
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Atlético Bucaramanga have gone ten matches without defeat, while Rionegro Águilas Doradas have one win in that span. The hosts are without the suspended José García.
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Eighth-placed Once Caldas have scored 10 more goals than their expected-goals tally suggests, while 14th-placed Llaneros FC have taken 8 points from their last 10 matches.
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Llaneros FC created the bigger chances, with 1.55 expected goals to 0.7, but Once Caldas goalkeeper Parra saved all five shots on target and Jorge Cardona scored the winner.
1–0
Fortaleza are 15th and have won one of their last ten, while Millonarios have taken eight wins from 11 meetings between the clubs. The market and our model both put the visitors at about 53%.
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First meets fifth in Medellín on 8 October, with Nacional 12 points clear and Tolima showing DDDLL in the table's form column. Nacional have won four of the last five meetings.
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Independiente Medellín had 20 shots and 60% of the ball in Itagüí, but the Santa Fe goalkeeper held firm before a late defender's goal decided it.
0–1
Two points separate the sides before Matchday 13 in Medellin. The betting market makes Independiente Medellín favourites, but Santa Fe have had the better of recent meetings.
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Atlético Bucaramanga lost J. García to a red card after 22 minutes, scored twice more before half-time and then relied on their goalkeeper as Junior outshot them 19 to 12.
3–1
Three goals inside 32 minutes settled it at the Estadio General Santander, and Pereira finished without a shot on target after a first-half red card.
4–0
Fortaleza FC had 12 shots to Pasto's five and put six on target, but the home goalkeeper stopped every one of them in Pasto on 4 October.
0–0