Unbeaten Bucaramanga host Rionegro, who have drawn six of their last ten

The state of play

Atlético Bucaramanga are unbeaten in their last ten, with five wins and five draws, and sit ninth on 46 points from 30 games. They have scored 19 and conceded 10 in that run, an average of two points a match.

Rionegro Águilas Doradas are 13th on 41 points from 31 games. Their last ten read one win, six draws and three defeats, worth 0.9 points a match, and four of those draws came in the most recent four games.

The hosts will be without José García, who is suspended after a red card. He started six of Bucaramanga's last eight matches and scored once in that spell. Rionegro have no absences to report.

Head to head

The two clubs have met 11 times, with four draws and an average of two goals a game. The most recent meeting, on 7 April, went to Rionegro 2-1.

In the five most recent games, Bucaramanga won twice, Rionegro won twice and one finished 1-1. Four of the five were decided by a single goal or a draw, and the fifth was the 2-1 in April.

The numbers behind it

Bucaramanga have the better goal difference, +16 against -6, with 46 scored and 30 conceded. Their expected goals are less flattering: 29.1 for and 31 against, so they have scored about 17 more than the chances suggested.

Rionegro sit the other way round. They have created 40 expected goals and scored 36, and their 34.1 expected against compares with 42 actually conceded. Their underlying numbers are better than their goal difference suggests.

Our view

The betting market implies about 47% for a Bucaramanga win, 28% for a draw and 25% for a Rionegro win. Our model leans higher on the hosts at 56%, with 24% for a draw and 20% for the visitors.

The gap comes mostly from recent results: two points a match for Bucaramanga against 0.9 for Rionegro. The expected-goals figures are less one-sided, so the difference between the two estimates is worth treating with caution.

On goals, the market puts both teams scoring at about 50% and our model at 52%. For more than 2.5 goals, the market implies 45% and our model 54%. Football is high-variance, and these are estimates, not predictions.