Ninth-placed Medellín host Santa Fe, who have won three of the last five meetings

The state of play

Independiente Medellín sit ninth in the Categoría Primera A table with 46 points from 30 matches. Independiente Santa Fe are fifth on 48, so only two points separate them before kick-off at the Estadio Atanasio Girardot at 00:00 UTC on 6 October. Fernando Bautista referees.

Medellín's record reads 13 wins, seven draws and 10 defeats, and their last five league results run D-L-W-D-L. Santa Fe have lost only six times, with 12 wins and 12 draws, and arrive on W-L-W-W-D.

Head to head

The sides have met 21 times. Santa Fe have won eight of those meetings, Medellín five, and eight have been drawn, with an average of 2.05 goals per game.

Recent meetings have favoured the visitors. Santa Fe won 2-1 at home in March and twice won 2-1 in Medellín in 2025. Medellín's only win in the last five was a 3-0 victory away from home last October, and the other meeting ended 0-0.

The numbers behind it

Over 10 matches the two sides are close. Medellín have won five, drawn two and lost three, scoring 19 and conceding 14 for 1.7 points per match. Santa Fe have won four, drawn four and lost two, scoring 14 and conceding 11 for 1.6 points per match.

Expected goals favour the hosts. Medellín have produced 37.5 xG and allowed 28.9 across 30 games, the stronger attacking figure of the two. Santa Fe have generated 33.2 xG and conceded 28.2, yet their 47 goals scored and goal difference of 13 are both better than Medellín's 45 and six. Santa Fe have also conceded fewer, 34 to Medellín's 39.

Our view

Across 16 bookmakers, the betting market implies about a 48% chance of a Medellín win, 27% for a draw and 24% for Santa Fe. Our model is less sure about the hosts at 43%, puts the draw at 26% and gives Santa Fe 31%.

That gap is modest and uncertain. It fits Santa Fe's higher league position, their better goal difference and their recent edge in this fixture, while the market appears to weigh Medellín's home ground and stronger expected-goals output.

On goals, the market sees roughly a 50% chance of more than 2.5, with our model slightly higher at 54%. Both teams scoring is around 53% in the market and 57% in the model. These are estimates, and football is high-variance: a single moment can overturn any of them.