The state of play
Once Caldas are eighth with 46 points from 31 matches, 10 more than Llaneros FC, who sit 14th on 36. The home side have won 11, drawn 13 and lost seven. Their goal difference is +8. Llaneros have won eight, drawn 12 and lost 11, and their goal difference is -4.
Neither side arrives in rhythm. Once Caldas' last five read draw, defeat, defeat, win, defeat. Llaneros' read defeat, defeat, win, defeat, defeat. Over the last 10 matches, Once Caldas have won three, drawn three and lost four, averaging 1.2 points a match. Llaneros have won two, drawn two and lost six, averaging 0.8.
Head to head
The sides have met twice recently, and Llaneros have not won either. Once Caldas won 1-0 at home on 27 March 2025. The most recent meeting, on 30 March 2026, finished 1-1 with Llaneros at home. Those two games produced an average of 1.5 goals.
The numbers behind it
Once Caldas have scored 46 goals from 35.6 expected, so they have finished chances well above the level of the chances created. At the other end they have conceded 38 against 31.4 expected, which suggests their defence has been given more work than the underlying figures warrant.
Llaneros have scored 32 from 30 expected, close to the level of their chances. They have conceded 36 against 39.2 expected, slightly better than the chances they have allowed. Their 10-match record shows 11 goals scored and 15 conceded. Once Caldas' shows nine scored and 12 conceded.
Our view
The betting market implies about 61% for a Once Caldas win, 24% for a draw and 15% for a Llaneros win. Our model is less emphatic at 55%, 24% and 21%. The gap sits on the home win and the away win.
A plausible reason is Once Caldas' goals scored running well ahead of their expected goals, and their goals conceded running above theirs. That is an inference from the numbers rather than a firm conclusion, and the difference between the two estimates is modest.
On goals, the market puts over 2.5 at about 49% and under 2.5 at 51%. The model is almost identical at 49% and 51%. These are estimates, and football is high-variance.
Market and model
Betting market · consensus of 12 bookmakersGiovePicks model
- Home win61% market55% model1.64 Fair odds implied by the market
- Draw24% market24% model4.24 Fair odds implied by the market
- Away win15% market21% model6.48 Fair odds implied by the market
- Over 2.5 goals49% market49% model2.05 Fair odds implied by the market
- Under 2.5 goals51% market51% model1.95 Fair odds implied by the market
Estimates built from public data, not advice or a tip. We do not take bets or recommend any operator. Football is high-variance and no estimate is a guarantee. 18+ only.