The state of play
Sixth meets 15th in Bogota on Matchday 14 of the league phase, with kick-off at 01:10 UTC on 9 October at the Estadio Metropolitano de Techo. Millonarios have 47 points from 32 games, 15 more than Fortaleza FC, who have 32 from 31.
Fortaleza have drawn 14 of those 31 games, won six and lost 11. Their goal difference is minus 10. Millonarios have won 12, drawn 11 and lost nine, with a goal difference of plus 15.
The latest league sequences read DDLDD for Fortaleza and DDWWD for Millonarios. Millonarios have not lost in those five games, while Fortaleza have one defeat among four draws.
Head to head
The clubs have met 11 times. Millonarios have won eight, Fortaleza two, and one meeting was drawn. The meetings have averaged 2.73 goals.
The latest was a 2-2 draw on 31 March 2026 at Millonarios. Before that, Millonarios won 2-0 on 6 April 2025 and 2-1 on 31 March 2024, both away from home.
The numbers behind it
Fortaleza's expected goals tell the same story as the table. They have scored 35 goals from 25.9 xG, so they have outperformed their chances, while the 45 goals they have conceded compare with 36.5 xG against.
Millonarios have created 43.7 xG across 32 games and scored 49. At the other end they have allowed 28.1 xG and conceded 34, so their defensive record is backed by the underlying chances.
Over the last ten matches Millonarios have three wins, six draws and one defeat, scoring 15 and conceding 10, for 1.5 points per match. Fortaleza have one win, five draws and four defeats, scoring 12 and conceding 17, for 0.8.
Our view
The betting market implies about 21% for a Fortaleza win, 25% for a draw and 53% for a Millonarios win. Our model is close, at 22%, 25% and 53%. The gap is too small to mean anything.
Both sets of estimates reflect the points gap, the recent form and the expected-goals columns. They are estimates, not predictions. Fortaleza's draw-heavy record is a reminder that football is high-variance.
Market and model
Betting market · consensus of 12 bookmakersGiovePicks model
- Home win21% market22% model4.69 Fair odds implied by the market
- Draw25% market25% model3.93 Fair odds implied by the market
- Away win53% market53% model1.88 Fair odds implied by the market
Estimates built from public data, not advice or a tip. We do not take bets or recommend any operator. Football is high-variance and no estimate is a guarantee. 18+ only.