Table-topping Toluca visit Tigres, who have drawn their last three

The state of play

Toluca lead the Apertura table with 20 points from 10 matches: six wins, two draws and two defeats. Tigres UANL sit 15th on 10 points, exactly half that total, with two wins, four draws and four defeats.

The recent sequences point the same way. Toluca have lost once in their last five league matches and have won the latest three (D-L-W-W-W). Tigres have drawn their last three (W-L-D-D-D), so they have not won since the first of those five games.

Over the last 10 matches in all, Toluca average 1.7 points a game and Tigres 1.0.

Head to head

The clubs have met 46 times. Away sides have won 21 of those, home sides 13, and 12 ended level. The average is 2.39 goals a game.

The latest five meetings are closely balanced. Toluca won 3-0 in May 2025 and 2-1 in December 2025. Tigres won 4-3 in July 2025 and 1-0 in December 2025. The most recent, in January, finished 0-0.

The numbers behind it

Toluca have scored 23 and conceded 12 this season. Their expected goals of 19.7 for and 10.5 against suggest the output is earned rather than lucky: they create more than they allow by a wide margin.

Tigres have scored 10 and conceded 13. Their expected goals read 15.0 for and 14.2 against, so they have scored fewer than their chances suggest and are close to even on the chances they concede.

Across the last 10 matches Toluca have scored 22 and let in 14, while Tigres have managed 10 and conceded 13.

Our view

The betting market implies about 41% for a Toluca win, 27% for a draw and 32% for a Tigres win. Our model is almost identical at 41%, 27% and 31%, so there is no meaningful disagreement.

On goals, the market puts both sides scoring at about 60% and over 2.5 goals at 55%. Our model is a little lower at 57% and 52%. These are estimates, not predictions, and football is high-variance: a side with the better numbers still fails to win often.