Cruz Azul host Juárez, who have lost nine of 11 and conceded 26

The state of play

Cruz Azul sit seventh in the Apertura table with 17 points from 11 games. Juárez are 18th with four, a gap of 13 points, and their record is stark: one win, one draw and nine defeats, with 26 goals conceded and a goal difference of -18.

Juárez will be without Javier Aquino, who is suspended after a red card. He was a regular, with five starts in his last eight squad appearances, though he has not scored in that time. Lucas Romero is out with a cruciate ligament injury but has not played lately. Cruz Azul's only listed absentee is Amaury Morales, with a knee injury, and he has not featured recently either.

Soy Futbol reports mixed news for the hosts, with the fitness of Paradela and the plans for Rotondi both under discussion. Nothing in that coverage confirms a line-up.

Head to head

Cruz Azul have won nine of the 13 meetings, Juárez two, with two draws. Those games average 2.77 goals.

Of the last five, Cruz Azul won three, including 4-0 in October 2024 and 3-2 in September 2025. Juárez's one success in that run was a 1-0 win in January 2025. The most recent meeting, on 31 January, finished 4-3 to Cruz Azul.

The numbers behind it

Cruz Azul have scored 22 goals from 19.8 expected, so their attack is slightly ahead of its chances. The defence is the opposite: 21 conceded against 13.7 expected, 7.3 more than the chances they have allowed. Over their last ten they have won three, drawn three and lost four, scoring 17 and conceding 18, for 1.2 points a match.

Juárez have scored eight from 10.7 expected and conceded 26 from 21.2, so even their underlying numbers are poor, if less dire than the results. In their last ten they have one win, one draw and eight defeats, scoring eight and conceding 25, for 0.4 points a match.

Our view

The betting market implies about 70% for a Cruz Azul win, 19% for a draw and 12% for a Juárez win. Our model leans slightly higher on the hosts at 71%, with 17% for the draw and 11% for the visitors. The difference is small and well within the uncertainty of any estimate.

On goals, our model puts the chance of three or more at 66%, against about 62% implied by the market. Cruz Azul's leaky defence and Juárez's 25 goals conceded in ten fit that picture, as does the head-to-head average of 2.77. Football is high-variance, and these are probabilities rather than predictions.