Toluca's attack meets San Luis without its top scorer in Matchday 12

The state of play

Toluca sit third in Liga MX Apertura with 20 points from 11 games, built on six wins, two draws and three defeats. Atlético San Luis are 15th with 12 points, eight fewer, after three wins, three draws and five defeats.

The goal difference shows the split: Toluca are on plus 10 (25 scored, 15 conceded), San Luis on minus five (15 scored, 20 conceded).

Both sides have injury concerns, and the visitors' are heavier. San Luis will be without João Pedro Galvão, a cruciate ligament injury ruling out a player who started seven of his last eight records and scored five times. Andrés Sánchez, who started five of those eight, is out with a hamstring injury. Toluca will be without Marcel Ruíz, who has a knee injury and started seven of his last eight.

Head to head

Toluca have won nine of the 13 meetings, San Luis two, and two have been drawn. Those games have averaged 2.77 goals.

The last five meetings have gone Toluca's way or ended level. The most recent, on 13 April, finished 1-1 in San Luis. Before that Toluca won 3-1, 1-0, 2-1 and 5-1 in the other fixtures listed, a record of one draw and four wins.

The numbers behind it

Toluca's expected goals are 20.9 for and 12.3 against over 11 games. That is a strong attack and a tight defence, and their actual totals of 25 and 15 sit close to those figures. San Luis's expected figures are 13.6 for and 16.5 against, so their defence has conceded more than the chances they allowed would suggest (20 goals against 16.5 expected).

Over the last 10 matches Toluca have five wins, two draws and three defeats, with 23 goals scored and 15 conceded, 1.7 points per match. San Luis have three wins, three draws and four defeats, with 13 scored and 17 conceded, 1.2 points per match.

Our view

The betting market implies about 70% for a Toluca win, 18% for a draw and 12% for a San Luis win. Our model is almost identical, at 70% for the hosts, 17% for a draw and 13% for the visitors. The two views barely differ, which suggests the table gap and Toluca's expected-goals edge are widely priced in.

On goals, our model puts over 2.5 at 71% and both teams scoring at 61%. The market is a little lower, at 67% and 57%. Football is high-variance, and these are estimates, not predictions.