The state of play
Atlante FC are 16th with 11 points from 11 matches, built on two wins, five draws and four defeats. Pumas UNAM are 12th on 13 points, with three wins, four draws and four defeats. Two points and four places separate them.
Neither side has won back-to-back matches in its current sequence. Atlante's reads L-W-D-L-D, Pumas' D-L-D-L-W.
Pumas will be without Sebastián Córdova, a regular starter who is out with a cruciate ligament injury. He has two goals and five starts in his recent run. José Juan Macías (knee, two goals) is also listed as injured, Cristian Calderón has a knock, and César Huerta is suspended after a red card. Atlante list Hardy Meza, who has a broken kneecap.
Head to head
Pumas have the historical edge in 12 meetings: eight wins to Atlante's three, with one draw. Those games average 2.67 goals.
Pumas won four of the five most recent meetings, including a 5-0 home win on 16 March 2014. Atlante's win in that stretch was 1-0 at home in September 2013.
The numbers behind it
Pumas have scored 17 goals from 11.4 expected, 5.6 more than the chances suggest. They have also conceded 19 against 16.9 expected, for a goal difference of -2. Over their last 10 matches they have scored 17 and conceded 16, averaging 1.3 points a match.
Atlante's problem is at both ends. They have scored 12 from 12.8 expected and conceded 17 against 14.4 expected, leaving a goal difference of -5. In their last 10 they have scored 11 and conceded 15, averaging 1.1 points a match. Their underlying attacking output is slightly better than Pumas', so the gap between the sides rests largely on finishing.
Our view
The betting market implies about 38% for an Atlante win, 27% for a draw and 35% for a Pumas win. Our model is almost identical at 38%, 26% and 36%. The difference is small, and it leaves this as close to an even contest.
On goals, the market implies about 53% for more than 2.5 in the match. Our model leans higher at 58%. That fits two sides that have each conceded more than their expected-goals figures. These are estimates, not predictions, and football is high-variance.
Market and model
Betting market · consensus of 13 bookmakersGiovePicks model
- Home win38% market38% model2.61 Fair odds implied by the market
- Draw27% market26% model3.69 Fair odds implied by the market
- Away win35% market36% model2.89 Fair odds implied by the market
- Over 2.5 goals53% market58% model1.87 Fair odds implied by the market
- Under 2.5 goals47% market42% model2.15 Fair odds implied by the market
Estimates built from public data, not advice or a tip. We do not take bets or recommend any operator. Football is high-variance and no estimate is a guarantee. 18+ only.