South Korea host Uzbekistan in Daejeon with an unbeaten record across 12 meetings

The state of play

South Korea welcome Uzbekistan to the Daejeon World Cup Stadium on 6 October, kick-off 11:00 UTC, as the stronger side by the numbers. They sit 21st in the standings with 10 points from seven games, against Uzbekistan's seven points from five in 41st.

South Korea have won three, drawn one and lost three, with a goal difference of plus one; their sequence reads D-L-W-W-W. Uzbekistan have two wins, a draw and two defeats, a goal difference of plus two and a sequence of W-W-L-L-D. Twenty places separate them, but only three points.

Head to head

History favours the hosts heavily. Of 12 recorded meetings, South Korea have won eight and four have been drawn; Uzbekistan have not won any. Those games have averaged 2.92 goals.

The five most recent meetings bear that out: a 4-0 South Korea win in Uzbekistan in November 2018, a goalless draw there in September 2017, and, on South Korean soil, a 2-1 win in November 2016, a 1-1 draw in March 2015 and a 2-0 win in January 2015. The last of those meetings came almost eight years ago.

The numbers behind it

South Korea's underlying numbers in the standings are encouraging. They have produced 8.9 expected goals and conceded 5.7 across seven games, a better balance than their 10 scored and nine conceded suggests at the back.

Uzbekistan's expected-goals figures cover only two games, 1.4 for and 5.7 against, so they are a thin sample. Across those five standings games they have scored 10 and conceded eight.

The wider form guide narrows the gap. Over their last 10 matches South Korea have four wins, a draw and five defeats, scoring and conceding 12, at 1.3 points per match. Uzbekistan have three wins, two draws and five defeats in their last 10, scoring 16 but conceding 21, at 1.1 points per match.

Our view

The betting market, drawn from six bookmakers, implies about a 58% chance of a South Korea win, 24% for a draw and 17% for Uzbekistan. Our model leans slightly towards the visitors, at 55% for the hosts, 25% for a draw and 20% for an away win.

That gap is small, and it is consistent with the two sides' similar recent records rather than any strong signal. Both measures put the chance of both teams scoring at roughly 50%. Football is high-variance, and a single match can easily run against the numbers.