USA's free-scoring run meets Canada's unbeaten defence in St. Paul

The state of play

Canada arrive in St. Paul unbeaten in this competition, and that record frames the fixture. They sit 6th on 15 points from seven matches, with four wins, three draws and no defeats. The USA are 11th on 12 points, with four wins and three losses.

The sides reach the same place by different routes. The USA have scored 17 and conceded 14 in the table, while Canada have scored 9 and conceded just 3. The hosts' latest sequence reads W-W-W-L-W. Canada's reads W-W-D-W-D.

Kick-off at Allianz Field is at 00:00 UTC on 7 October.

Head to head

Across 13 meetings, the USA have won 5, Canada 4, and 4 have been drawn, with an average of 2.08 goals per game. The more recent picture favours Canada. They have won three of the last five meetings, including a 2-1 win in the USA on 7 September 2024 and another 2-1 win on 23 March 2025.

The USA's only win in that run came on 19 June 2023, a 2-0 victory in Canada. A 2-2 draw on 9 July 2023 completes the five.

The numbers behind it

Expected goals add a twist. The USA have scored 17 from an xG of 11 across seven games, so they have finished their chances better than the underlying numbers suggest. Their xG against is 10.1, which points to a fairly open side at both ends.

Canada's figures show the reverse pattern in attack. They have scored 9 from an xG of 14.1, so the chances have been there even when the goals have not. Their xG against of 4 supports a defensive record that looks genuine rather than fortunate.

Over their last 10 matches, the USA have won 7 and lost 3, scoring 26 and conceding 15 at 2.1 points per match. Canada have won 5, drawn 3 and lost 2 in the same span, scoring 15 and conceding 7 at 1.8 points per match.

Our view

The betting market implies about a 47% chance of a home win, 26% for a draw and 27% for an away win. Our model leans slightly more towards Canada. It gives the USA about 42%, the draw 28% and Canada 30%.

That gap is modest, and it likely reflects Canada's strong expected-goals profile at both ends against the USA's reliance on finishing above their xG. Both estimates still make the hosts the most probable winners, but none of the three outcomes is far out of reach. In a single football match, variance can easily override these margins.