Algeria put a perfect defensive record on the line against winless Niger in Algiers

The state of play

Algeria host Niger at the Stade 5 Juillet 1962 in Algiers on 6 October, kick-off 17:00 UTC, with the gap between the sides wide in every column. Algeria sit 13th in the standings with 10 points from four matches: three wins, one draw, no defeats. Their sequence reads W-W-D-W-W.

Niger are 134th with two points from their four. They have drawn two and lost two, and their sequence reads L-D-L-D-D. That is eight points between the sides from the same number of games, and the difference in goal difference is 14: plus 12 for Algeria, minus 2 for Niger.

Head to head

The recent meetings point one way. Algeria have won all three in the record, scoring 11 and conceding two, an average of four goals a game.

The most recent, on 6 June 2022, was the tightest: a 1-0 Algeria win at home. The two before that came four days apart in October 2021, a 6-1 home win on 8 October and a 4-0 win in Niger on 12 October.

The numbers behind it

Algeria's defensive record is the headline figure: 12 goals scored and none conceded in four matches. Expected goals, available for three of those games, suggest some of that is finishing above the chances. Algeria created 5.3 xG and allowed 3.0, a healthy margin, but a narrower one than the scoreline column suggests.

Across a wider sample the picture is less one-sided. Algeria's last 10 matches brought five wins, two draws and three defeats, with 18 goals scored and 11 conceded, an average of 1.7 points a game. Their 10-match sequence reads L-D-W-L-W-W-D-W-L-W.

Niger's last 10 produced three wins, three draws and four defeats, 9 goals for and 13 against, and 1.2 points per match. Their sequence, L-D-L-D-D-L-W-W-W-L, includes a run of three straight wins, so the recent record is not without encouragement. Goals have been the problem in this competition, though: one in four matches. No expected-goals figures are available for Niger.

Our view

The betting market implies about a 77% chance of an Algeria win, 16% for a draw and 7% for Niger. Our model leans slightly further towards the hosts at 81%, with the draw at 13% and an away win at 6%.

The gap is small and rests on the supplied numbers: Algeria's unbeaten run, clean sheets and head-to-head record. The model also leans away from both sides scoring, at about 37% against the market's 43%, reflecting Niger's single goal in four. These are estimates, not certainties; a one-goal game can turn on a single moment, and football remains a high-variance sport.