Mexico's six-match winning run meets a Chile side with three losses in four

The state of play

Mexico arrive in rare form. Their last 10 matches read L-D-D-L-W-W-W-W-W-W, six straight wins after a stuttering start, and they lead the International Friendly Games table with 22 points from 11 games.

That record, six wins, four draws and a single defeat, comes with 17 goals scored and seven conceded, a goal difference of plus 10. Their table sequence of L-D-D-W-W reflects the same turnaround.

Chile have played far fewer games in this table and sit 118th with three points from four matches: one win, three defeats. Their wider recent run, L-L-W-L-W-W-W-D-L-L, has brought 1.3 points per match, against Mexico's 2.0, and they have lost the last two.

Head to head

The history pulls the other way. In 13 meetings Chile have won five, Mexico four, with four draws, and those games have averaged 2.46 goals.

The five most recent listed meetings were all staged with Mexico as hosts: a 2-2 draw on 9 December 2021, a 3-1 Mexico win in March 2019, a 1-0 Chile win in October 2018, a 7-0 Chile victory in June 2016 and a 1-0 Mexico win earlier that month.

The numbers behind it

Mexico's results are backed by their underlying numbers. Across 11 games they have produced 14.1 expected goals and allowed 6.1, roughly 1.28 xG for and 0.55 against per match. Scoring 17 suggests they have finished slightly above that rate.

Chile's figures are thinner. In four games they have generated 4.0 xG and conceded 7.7, close to their actual five scored and eight conceded. Over their last 10 they have scored 11 and let in 15, while Mexico have scored 18 and conceded nine in the same span.

Our view

Based on 11 bookmakers, the betting market implies about a 59% chance of a Mexico win, 23% for a draw and 18% for Chile. Our model is almost identical: 59% Mexico, 22% draw and 19% Chile.

The gap is negligible, a point or so either way, so there is no meaningful disagreement to explain. Mexico's form and expected-goals profile support their position as favourites, while Chile's head-to-head record is a reminder that one-off football matches are high-variance and roughly four games in ten would not end in a home win on these estimates.