Colombia host Peru with the numbers leaning their way, but recent meetings have been tight

The state of play

Colombia go into this friendly in Tuesday's late kick-off, 23:45 UTC on 6 October, as the stronger side on most measures, though their latest results are mixed. In the league phase they sit 46th with 7 points from six games: two wins, one draw and three defeats, with a sequence of L-D-W-W-L.

Peru are 73rd with 5 points from seven games, having won one, drawn two and lost four. Their last five read L-D-L-L-W, so they arrive off a win.

The wider run favours Colombia more clearly. Over their last ten matches they have won five, drawn three and lost two, averaging 1.8 points per match. Peru have managed 0.9 points per match across the same span, with two wins, three draws and five defeats.

Head to head

The long record belongs to Colombia. Across 21 meetings they have won 10, Peru have won 3 and 8 have been drawn, with an average of 1.95 goals per game.

The recent picture is closer. The two most recent meetings were both draws: 0-0 in Colombia on 6 June 2025 and 1-1 in Peru on 7 September 2024. Before that, Peru won 1-0 in Colombia in January 2022, and the two sides traded wins in the summer of 2021, Colombia winning 3-2 in July after Peru had won 1-2 in June.

The numbers behind it

The defensive columns tell the main story. Colombia have conceded 8 goals in six league-phase games, but their expected goals against is only 5.5, which suggests they have been somewhat unlucky. At the other end they have scored 8 from 7.8 xG, close to what their chances merited.

Peru's figures are more concerning. They have conceded 15 goals against 11.5 xG and scored 7 from 4.2 xG, leaving a goal difference of -8. Over their last ten matches they have let in 18 goals and scored 11, while Colombia's ten-match tally is 12 scored and 7 conceded.

Our view

The betting market implies about a 67% chance of a Colombia win, about 21% for a draw and about 12% for Peru. Our model leans slightly further towards the hosts at 71%, with the draw at 19% and Peru at 11%.

That small gap reflects Colombia's healthier expected-goals profile and Peru's leaky defence, but it is a modest difference. With the last two meetings drawn, and given how unpredictable single matches can be, these figures are estimates rather than certainties.