The state of play
Cracovia sit 13th in the Ekstraklasa with eight points from nine matches, having lost four of their last five league games and won the other. Two wins, two draws and five defeats leave them with a goal difference of minus five.
Zagłębie Lubin are seventh on 15 points, seven clear of their hosts. They have won four, drawn three and lost two, and their last five league games brought one defeat, two wins and two draws. A goal difference of plus one reflects a side that rarely wins or loses by much.
Over the last 10 matches in all, Cracovia have taken 0.8 points per game from two wins, two draws and six defeats. Zagłębie have averaged 1.5 from four wins, three draws and three defeats.
Head to head
The two have met 36 times, and 16 of those ended in draws. Cracovia have 13 wins in the series and Zagłębie seven, with an average of 2.22 goals a game.
The recent meetings are even tighter. Two 0-0 draws, in November 2025 and May 2026, sit alongside two 1-1 draws and a 2-1 win for Cracovia in May 2025. Four of the last five finished level.
The numbers behind it
Cracovia's attack has created more than it has scored. Their expected goals total is 13.8 against nine actual goals, a shortfall of 4.8. At the other end they have conceded 14 against an expected 12.7.
Zagłębie's figures line up more closely. They have scored 11 from 12 expected goals and conceded 10 against an expected 10.8, which suggests their position is not flattering them.
Over the last 10 matches Cracovia have scored 12 and conceded 18, while Zagłębie have scored 12 and conceded 13.
Our view
The betting market implies about 49% for a Cracovia win, 27% for a draw and 24% for a Zagłębie win. Our model leans a little towards the visitors, at 44% for the hosts, 27% for the draw and 29% for Zagłębie.
The gap on the away side is five percentage points. It fits the contrast in expected goals and recent results, though it is small and uncertain. The draw is priced almost identically by both, at 27%.
On goals, the market gives 50% for three or more and our model 49%. Both put the chance of each side scoring at about 53%. These are estimates, and football is high-variance.
Market and model
Betting market · consensus of 14 bookmakersGiovePicks model
- Home win49% market44% model2.06 Fair odds implied by the market
- Draw27% market27% model3.69 Fair odds implied by the market
- Away win24% market29% model4.10 Fair odds implied by the market
- Over 2.5 goals50% market49% model2.01 Fair odds implied by the market
- Under 2.5 goals50% market51% model1.99 Fair odds implied by the market
Estimates built from public data, not advice or a tip. We do not take bets or recommend any operator. Football is high-variance and no estimate is a guarantee. 18+ only.