Ittihad Tanger host unbeaten Maghreb Fes, whose expected goals outrun their results

The state of play

Maghreb Fes arrive in Tangier second in the Botola Pro with 7 points from three games: two wins, a draw and no defeats. Ittihad Tanger are sixth on 4 points, with one win, one draw and one defeat, so three points separate the sides on matchday four.

Tanger have scored five and conceded four, a goal difference of +1. Fes have scored four and conceded two, a goal difference of +2, and the visitors' league sequence reads D-W-W-W-D.

Fes have team news to manage. Adil Rhaili, Diogo Calila and Soulaïman Allouch are all listed as injured, and all three are regulars. Calila, with a broken foot, played in eight of the last eight records; Allouch, with a shoulder injury, features in seven of eight. Rhaili, out with a knock, has one goal from his recent run. Samba Mbengue is also listed with a muscle injury. No absences are listed for Tanger.

Head to head

The two clubs have met 12 times: six draws, four wins for the side now travelling to Tangier and two for the hosts. Meetings average 2.33 goals, so these games are tight and low scoring.

Three of the last five ended 1-1. Fes won 2-1 in March 2024, and Tanger took the most recent meeting 1-0 on 22 May, away from home. Nobody has scored more than twice in any of those five games.

The numbers behind it

Fes have been the steadier side over ten matches: six wins, three draws and one defeat, 14 goals scored and six conceded, an average of 2.1 points per match. Tanger have won four, drawn two and lost four, scoring 10 and conceding 10, for 1.4 points per match.

The expected-goals column adds a twist. Fes have created 7.2 expected goals in three games against 1.8 conceded, yet have scored only four. Their attack has produced more than it has finished, while their defence has conceded two against an expected 1.8, roughly in line.

Tanger's underlying numbers are balanced: 5.3 expected goals for and 4.6 against, close to their five scored and four conceded. They are performing about where the chances say they should.

Our view

The betting market implies about 23% for a Tanger win, 33% for a draw and 44% for a Fes win. Our model sits very close: 23% for the hosts, 32% for a draw and 45% for the visitors.

The small gap leans slightly towards Fes, in line with their recent points per match and expected goals. With three draws in the last five meetings and a draw priced near one in three, this is far from settled. These are estimates, not predictions, and football is high-variance.