AS FAR Rabat host Widad Temara, whose recent run reads one win in five

The state of play

The table and the recent record point in opposite directions at Complexe Sportif Moulay Abdellah. Widad Temara are fifth with 3 points from two matches, one win and one defeat. AS FAR Rabat are 13th, with the table showing no matches played and no points.

Temara's league sequence reads L-W, a goal difference of +1 from three scored and two conceded. Their wider form is weaker: across their last five matches they have won one and lost four, a sequence of L-W-L-L-L that has brought 0.6 points per match.

FAR's last ten matches read W-D-W-W-D-L-D-D-W-D: four wins, five draws and one defeat. That is 1.7 points per match, and only one loss in ten. Kick-off is at 18:00 UTC on 8 October, on Matchday 3 of the regular season.

Head to head

The sides have met once in the supplied record. On 12 September, FAR won 3-2 with Temara the away side, so the fixture produced five goals. One meeting is a thin sample, but both teams scored.

The numbers behind it

Temara's early table position rests on a small base. Over two matches their expected goals were 2.2 for and 2.9 against, so the chances they conceded outweighed the chances they created, even though their actual goals conceded were only two.

Their last five matches show the same strain: five goals scored and seven conceded. FAR's last ten tell a steadier story, with 16 scored and 12 conceded, a goal difference of +4. No expected-goals figures are available for FAR this season.

Two matches is too few to separate signal from noise, so the fifth place held by Temara says little about what the next 90 minutes holds.

Our view

The betting market implies about 66% for an AS FAR Rabat win, 23% for a draw and 11% for a Widad Temara win. That is a clear lean towards the home side, and it fits with their one defeat in ten and Temara's four in five.

Temara's expected-goals figures from two matches add to the case against them, but the sample is small and the estimate is uncertain. Football is high-variance, and a side that has conceded more than it has created can still take points on the day.