Pointless Zemamra host Agadir with a strong head-to-head record

The state of play

Renaissance Zemamra and Hassania d'Agadir meet in Botola Pro on Matchday 3, with kick-off at 18:00 UTC on 8 October. The table and the history point in different directions.

Zemamra are 15th after two games, both lost. They have no points, one goal scored, three conceded and a goal difference of minus two. Their league sequence reads L-L-D-D-D.

Agadir are seventh with three points from two games: one win, one defeat, four goals scored and four conceded. Their goal difference is level at zero, and their sequence reads L-W-D-L-D.

Head to head

The two sides have met eight times, and three of those games were drawn. The average is 1.75 goals per meeting, so these are not usually high-scoring fixtures.

The last five meetings favour Zemamra: three wins and two draws, with no Agadir victory. Zemamra won 3-0 on 2 March 2024 and 2-0 on 12 January 2025. The most recent two games, on 22 February and 28 June 2026, finished 0-0 and 1-1.

The numbers behind it

Over their last ten matches Zemamra have won two, drawn four and lost four, scoring 12 and conceding 14. That is 1.0 points per match. Their run of L-L-W-D-D-D-D-L-L-W shows plenty of stalemates.

Agadir have won four, drawn three and lost three from their last ten, scoring 10 and conceding 10, for 1.5 points per match. Their sequence is L-W-D-L-D-D-W-L-W-W, with two wins in the latest two.

The expected-goals figures from this season's two games complicate Agadir's position. They have created 4.4 xG and scored four, but the chances they have allowed total 7.5 xG against four goals conceded. Zemamra have created only 1.1 xG, and the chances against them total 3.9 xG. Neither side has yet shown a settled pattern in defence.

Our view

The betting market implies about 39% for a Zemamra win, 32% for a draw and 29% for an Agadir win. Our model leans slightly differently, at 37% for the hosts, 32% for a draw and 31% for the visitors.

The gap is small. It is consistent with Agadir's better recent points return of 1.5 per match against 1.0, set against Zemamra's unbeaten recent meetings with them. Both are estimates, not predictions, and with a draw close to one chance in three and only two games of data this season, the outcome stays very open.