Numbers
- Market prob.
- 57%
- Fair odds
- 1.77
- Bookmaker margin
- 6.4%
- Bookmakers
- 16
Football · 14 October 2026
Dream slip · odds 123.83
A ten-leg slip built on Championship favourites facing weak opponents, goals in the big Champions League games and three low-scoring spots.
What to play
- Odds
- 123.83
- Selections
- 10
Numbers
- Market prob.
- 56%
- Fair odds
- 1.78
- Bookmaker margin
- 6.1%
- Bookmakers
- 16
Numbers
- Market prob.
- 54%
- Fair odds
- 1.85
- Bookmaker margin
- 7.1%
- Bookmakers
- 16
Numbers
- Market prob.
- 64%
- Fair odds
- 1.57
- Bookmaker margin
- 7.6%
- Bookmakers
- 5
Numbers
- Market prob.
- 67%
- Fair odds
- 1.50
- Bookmaker margin
- 6.7%
- Bookmakers
- 16
Numbers
- Market prob.
- 65%
- Fair odds
- 1.54
- Bookmaker margin
- 7.3%
- Bookmakers
- 17
Numbers
- Market prob.
- 60%
- Fair odds
- 1.66
- Bookmaker margin
- 5.3%
- Bookmakers
- 6
Numbers
- Market prob.
- 46%
- Fair odds
- 2.16
- Bookmaker margin
- 5.2%
- Bookmakers
- 17
Numbers
- Market prob.
- 66%
- Fair odds
- 1.51
- Bookmaker margin
- 7.5%
- Bookmakers
- 11
Numbers
- Market prob.
- 49%
- Fair odds
- 2.06
- Bookmaker margin
- 3.5%
- Bookmakers
- 6
Why this pick
Derby sit 23rd with 15 goals conceded and 16.2 xG against in 9 games, and four regulars are out (Taylor, Murkin, Cashin, Widell Zetterström). The market has moved from 53% to about 57% for QPR since it opened.
The numbers behind it
- Queens Park Rangers to win: bookmaker consensus 57% (fair odds 1.77, offered 1.65) · analyst estimate 58% · 16 bookmakers · analyst-1.0.0
- Price: a dearer-than-usual price. At 1.65 the bookmaker keeps about 6.4% of the stake on this leg.
- Combined probability on the market's numbers: 0%
- Model analyst-1.0.0 · data quality high
Read the full analysis
The plan is to mix markets rather than stack one kind of outcome. There are three result legs where the data back the favourite (QPR, West Ham, Betis), three both-teams-to-score or over legs in Champions League games with strong attacks (City-PSG, Roma-Real Madrid, Villa-Fenerbahçe), one Championship BTTS leg, and three legs that need few goals (Tanger-Fes, Junior-Pereira, Shakhtar-AEK).
The strongest legs are the goals markets in Rome and Manchester. PSG create 3.04 xG per match, and Roma will be without regular goalkeeper Svilar against a Madrid side creating 2.39 xG. BSD's model and the market both sit near 66% for both teams scoring in each game. In the Championship, Derby's long injury list and their 16.2 xG conceded make QPR a fair price, and the market has been moving towards them.
The weakest legs are Betis to win at 2.05, against a Porto side that is 5-0-1 on the road in recent games, and Shakhtar-AEK under 2.5 at 1.98, which is close to a coin flip. Tanger-Fes also carries a home line-up confidence of 0.41, so treat it with care.
Every leg is rated at or slightly above its market price, but ten legs have to land together. At combined odds of around 123, this is a long shot for fun, and most weeks a slip like this will not land.
Prediction, odds, and model version remain attached to the original publication. Live updates never alter the suggestion.