Göteborg's expected goals outrun Västerås, who have scored above their chances

The state of play

Västerås SK sit sixth on 35 points from 22 games, three clear of IFK Göteborg in ninth on 32. Västerås have 10 wins, five draws and seven defeats; Göteborg have nine wins, five draws and eight defeats.

Göteborg arrive in the better short-term shape. Their latest five league results contain four wins and a draw, while Västerås have three wins, one draw and one defeat across theirs. Over the last 10 matches the gap narrows: Göteborg have 1.7 points per match and Västerås 1.6, each with five wins.

Head to head

The sides have met three times, with one Göteborg win, two draws and no Västerås victory. Two of those games finished 1-1.

The most recent meeting was far wilder: Göteborg won 5-4 at Västerås in May. The three games have averaged 4.33 goals, well above what either side's current totals would suggest.

The numbers behind it

Göteborg have scored 31 and conceded 41, a goal difference of minus 10. Their expected goals read 35.6 for and 30.2 against, so the chances created and allowed point to a side that has been worse off than its performances.

Västerås show the reverse. They have scored 34 against 27.1 expected, and conceded 35 against 39.1 expected. Their goal difference of minus one sits above what the underlying chances would suggest.

Recent scoring is close to even. Göteborg have scored 15 and conceded 13 in their last 10; Västerås have scored 12 and conceded 13.

Our view

The betting market implies about 55% for a Göteborg win, 24% for a draw and 21% for a Västerås win. Our model leans slightly lower on the hosts at 52%, with the draw at 25% and the away side at 23%. The gap is small.

On goals, the market implies about 59% for more than 2.5 and our model sits a little lower at 56%. Both sides scoring is put at 59% by the market and 57% by our model. These are estimates, not predictions, and football is high-variance.