Djurgårdens IF visit Brommapojkarna with a 14-point lead and the league's sharper defence

The state of play

Second meets 11th, and the gap is 14 points: Djurgårdens IF have 44 from 23 games, IF Brommapojkarna have 30. The visitors have won 14 and lost seven, with two draws. The hosts have won eight, drawn six and lost nine.

Djurgården's table sequence reads one defeat followed by four wins. Brommapojkarna's reads a win, two defeats, a win and a defeat. Over the last 10 matches, Djurgården have won seven and lost three, averaging 2.1 points a game. Brommapojkarna have won four, drawn two and lost four, averaging 1.4.

Both sides have a regular missing. Djurgården are without Miro Tenho, suspended for yellow card accumulation; he started eight of his last eight records. Brommapojkarna are without the injured Oliver Berg, who started seven of eight and scored twice in that spell.

Head to head

Djurgården lead the series comfortably. In 18 meetings they have won 10, Brommapojkarna five, and three have been drawn. The average is 2.56 goals a game.

The recent picture is closer. Of the last five meetings, Djurgården won three, Brommapojkarna one and one ended 1-1. Brommapojkarna's win was the most recent, 2-1 away from home. Four of the five were decided by a single goal or level.

The numbers behind it

Djurgården's goals match their chances. They have scored 48 from 43 expected goals and conceded 21 against 28.3 expected, so the defence has beaten the underlying figure. Their goal difference is +27.

Brommapojkarna have scored 36 from 30.9 expected goals but conceded 41 against 37.8 expected. Their goal difference is -5.

The recent record points the same way. Djurgården have scored 16 and conceded six in their last 10. Brommapojkarna have scored 18 and conceded 20, a sequence of matches with plenty of goals at both ends.

Our view

The betting market implies about 63% for a Djurgården win, 21% for a draw and 16% for a Brommapojkarna win. Our model leans slightly further towards the visitors at 67%, with 19% for the draw and 14% for the hosts.

The gap between the two is small, and the model's lean fits Djurgården's defensive numbers and recent points average. On goals, the market implies about 61% for more than 2.5 and our model 63%. These are estimates, not predictions, and football is high-variance.