Hammarby host Djurgården with 16 wins in 27 meetings and two points separating second from third

The state of play

Second meets third in Allsvenskan, and the table leaves almost nothing between them. Hammarby IF have 43 points from 22 matches; Djurgårdens IF have 41. Hammarby's goal difference is +29 against +26 for the visitors.

Hammarby have won 13, drawn four and lost five. Their league sequence reads win, win, draw, defeat, win. Djurgården have also won 13, but they have drawn two and lost seven. Their sequence is one defeat followed by four wins, which is the stronger recent run of the two.

Over the last 10 matches in all competitions, Djurgården have taken 2.1 points per match, with seven wins and three defeats. Hammarby average 2 points per match from six wins, two draws and two defeats.

Head to head

Hammarby hold a clear edge across 27 meetings: 16 wins to Djurgården's three, with eight draws. Those fixtures have averaged 3.07 goals.

The last five show a tighter picture. Hammarby won 3-0 away in June 2024, then 2-0 at home in October 2024 and again in April 2025. The next two meetings were level, 3-3 in September 2025 and 1-1 in April 2026.

The numbers behind it

Hammarby have the better attack on paper. They have scored 49 league goals from 49 expected, and conceded 20 from 22.7 expected. Their output matches the quality of their chances almost exactly.

Djurgården have scored 47 from 41.7 expected, so they have finished above what their chances suggest. They have conceded 21 against 26.9 expected, which means their defensive record has also run ahead of the underlying numbers.

In the last 10 matches Djurgården have scored 21 and conceded six. Hammarby have scored 17 and conceded six. Both defences have been tight, but the visitors have been more productive at the other end.

Our view

The betting market implies about 53% for a Hammarby win, 23% for a draw and 23% for a Djurgården win. Our model leans slightly lower on the home side at 51%, with the draw at 25% and an away win at 24%. The gap is small, and the two views agree on the broad shape.

On goals, the market implies about 61% for both sides to score; our model puts it at 55%. Given Djurgården's overperformance against expected goals this season, a little caution on that figure is reasonable. These are estimates, not predictions, and football is a high-variance sport.