Gimcheon Sangmu's 18 draws meet FC Anyang's six defeats in ten

The state of play

Gimcheon Sangmu are the draw specialists of K League 1. They sit tenth on 33 points after 30 games, with five wins, 18 draws and seven defeats. Only five points separate them from ninth-placed FC Anyang, who have 38 from nine wins, 11 draws and 10 defeats.

The recent picture splits them sharply. Gimcheon have taken 1.3 points a match over their last ten, with two wins, seven draws and one defeat, and have scored nine and conceded eight. Anyang average 0.8 points a match across the same span: two wins, two draws and six defeats, with 10 goals scored and 24 conceded.

Head to head

The last five meetings produced two Gimcheon wins, one Anyang win and two draws, averaging 3.2 goals a game. This year's pair finished 1-1 in April and 2-2 in May.

Anyang's one victory was a 4-1 win in October 2025. Gimcheon won 3-1 in March 2025 and 1-0 in June 2025.

The numbers behind it

Gimcheon have scored 30 goals from 36.0 expected, so their finishing has run six goals behind the quality of their chances. They have conceded 36 against 37.6 expected, a defence performing close to its numbers.

Anyang present the opposite profile in attack. They have 38 goals from 33.2 expected, about five above what the chances suggest. At the back they have let in 47 against 49.5 expected, and their goal difference is minus nine, against Gimcheon's minus six.

Anyang's attack has outperformed its chances, and over the last ten games their defence has leaked more than two goals a match on average.

Our view

The betting market implies about 49% for a Gimcheon win, 26% for a draw and 25% for an Anyang win. Our model leans slightly higher on the home side at 52%, with the draw at 25% and an away win at 23%.

The gap is small. It fits Gimcheon's recent record of one defeat in ten and Anyang's 24 goals conceded in that time. Both estimates put a goal at each end at 54% to 56%, and over 2.5 goals at 53% to 54%. These are estimates, and football is high-variance.